Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (73%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $2K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 73%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$401.58

Smart Money Entry

0.4¢ → 0.5¢

+15% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares372,344

Combined PnL+$400.8

No3 traders

Total Value$71.4

Total Shares72

Combined PnL+$0.78

Yes — 73%No — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$703.96	$968.18	+$264.22	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
0X 0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893CTR	Yesavg 0.5¢	$726.84	$832.34	+$105.69	38% 425-683 (1108)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$149.75	$217.33	+$67.58	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
solwizzo-onX<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$60.68	$61.45	+$0.77	67% 347-174 (521)
TH thebug44CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$17.34	$15.9	-$1.44	33% 42-86 (128)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yes	$7.18	$7.18	-$32.38	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
DI Diabolical-Prize<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$5	$4.98	+$0	48% 175-192 (367)
0X 0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$4.97	$4.97	+$0.01	73% 41-15 (56)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$151	$3.3	-$1.44	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$3.92	$3.08	-$1.12	54% 229-195 (424)
0X 0xe41faaaaea1b6eae4546eca7713066dc05CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.46	$0.57	-$0.31	53% 3486-3070 (6556)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$703.96

Value

$968.18

PnL

+$264.22

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893CTR

Yes

Invested

$726.84

Value

$832.34

PnL

+$105.69

Record

38%

425-683 (1108)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$149.75

Value

$217.33

PnL

+$67.58

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

solwizzo-onX<$100

Invested

$60.68

Value

$61.45

PnL

+$0.77

Record

67%

347-174 (521)

thebug44CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.34

Value

$15.9

PnL

-$1.44

Record

33%

42-86 (128)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.18

Value

$7.18

PnL

-$32.38

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

Diabolical-Prize<$100

Invested

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

175-192 (367)

0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100

Invested

$4.97

Value

$4.97

PnL

+$0.01

Record

73%

41-15 (56)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$151

Value

$3.3

PnL

-$1.44

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Dimpled-FoalCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.92

Value

$3.08

PnL

-$1.12

Record

54%

229-195 (424)

0xe41faaaaea1b6eae4546eca7713066dc05CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.46

Value

$0.57

PnL

-$0.31

Record

53%

3486-3070 (6556)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6253.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

6353.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.