Consensus PnL $265K · win rate 73% (268–100, n=368) · PM monthly #528 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$264.9K
Record
268W / 100L
Win Rate
73.0%
of 368 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#627
Source
PM monthly #528
Trades
349
Markets
406
Volume
$10.3M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $375 · now 1¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 9)
- Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $255 · now 0¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 12)
Specialties
305 settled consensus markets · held side won 90% at an average entry of 56¢- Tennis
+46 pts
side won 100% of 60 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +44%
- MLB
+32 pts
side won 85% of 149 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +33%
- MMA
+38 pts
side won 92% of 26 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +46%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 86% of 7)
- 30–50¢: 30%(won 82% of 90)
- 50–70¢: 56%(won 92% of 171)
- 70¢ and up: 12%(won 100% of 37)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.