Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 12 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$10.38

Smart Money Entry

0.4¢ → 0.3¢

-43% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares610,589

Combined PnL+$10.38

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

193 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.3¢	$802.58	$1.5K	+$680.93	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
0X 0x2cE8505aA641791EB8460f6ac6bf5C0511E34527-1746735481513CTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$30.1	$255.35	-$468.15	54% 256-218 (474)
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$39.19	$25.91	-$13.28	67% 751-378 (1129)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$35.32	$25.76	-$43.36	41% 648-925 (1573)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.39	$12.2	-$21.63	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
DonkovCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$39.99	$12	-$27.99	71% 968-396 (1364)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$30.87	$9.89	-$21.06	47% 83-94 (177)
GollumGekkoCTR	Yesavg 12.9¢	$5.31	$3.13	-$2.18	68% 2074-957 (3031)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$0.82	$0.82	-$1.45	7% 14-187 (201)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$2.06	$0.56	-$1.59	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$1.13	$0.55	-$0.58	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$3.6K	$0.11	-$69.28	76% 8934-2819 (11753)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$802.58

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$680.93

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

0x2cE8505aA641791EB8460f6ac6bf5C0511E34527-1746735481513CTR

Yes

Invested

$30.1

Value

$255.35

PnL

-$468.15

Record

54%

256-218 (474)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.19

Value

$25.91

PnL

-$13.28

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.32

Value

$25.76

PnL

-$43.36

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.39

Value

$12.2

PnL

-$21.63

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

DonkovCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.99

Value

$12

PnL

-$27.99

Record

71%

968-396 (1364)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.87

Value

$9.89

PnL

-$21.06

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

GollumGekkoCTR

Yes

Invested

$5.31

Value

$3.13

PnL

-$2.18

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.82

Value

$0.82

PnL

-$1.45

Record

14-187 (201)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.06

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$1.59

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.13

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$0.58

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,612.91

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$69.28

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

193 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7596.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

7696.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.