Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.8¢ · $870 held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$869.59

Combined PnL

$-2.7K

Smart Money Entry

0.7¢ → 0.8¢

+9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$869.59

Total Shares115,945

Combined PnL$-2.7K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

4877h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

219 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2cE8505aA641791EB8460f6ac6bf5C0511E34527-1746735481513CTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$450	$375	-$75	54% 256-218 (474)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$84.8	$204.17	+$119.37	43% 1401-1820 (3221)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yes	$19.2K	$137.28	$-2.8K	72% 6833-2629 (9462)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$38.31	$79.39	-$0.54	41% 648-925 (1573)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$34.77	$33.38	-$1.39	36% 2086-3722 (5808)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$31.58	$30.37	-$1.26	47% 85-95 (180)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$4.79	$7.82	+$3.03	68% 2074-958 (3032)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$2.19	$2.19	-$0.09	7% 14-187 (201)

0x2cE8505aA641791EB8460f6ac6bf5C0511E34527-1746735481513CTR

Yes

Invested

$450

Value

$375

PnL

-$75

Record

54%

256-218 (474)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$84.8

Value

$204.17

PnL

+$119.37

Record

43%

1401-1820 (3221)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$19,236.94

Value

$137.28

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

72%

6833-2629 (9462)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.31

Value

$79.39

PnL

-$0.54

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.77

Value

$33.38

PnL

-$1.39

Record

36%

2086-3722 (5808)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.58

Value

$30.37

PnL

-$1.26

Record

47%

85-95 (180)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.79

Value

$7.82

PnL

+$3.03

Record

68%

2074-958 (3032)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.19

Value

$2.19

PnL

-$0.09

Record

14-187 (201)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

4877h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

219 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.8%

0.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5398.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

5498.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.