Consensus PnL $12K · win rate 69% (9–4, n=13) · PM monthly #942 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$12.0K
Record
9W / 4L
Win Rate
69.0%
of 13 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#802
Source
PM monthly #942
Trades
45
Markets
20
Volume
$86.5K
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 3 on the consensus side (33%)- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $47K · now 12¢ · in at 15¢with the consensus (91% of 33)
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $15K · now 16¢ · in at 26¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $3.0K · now 13¢ · in at 5¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
14 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 75¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where 0x3D84c9478F783C950B6E3259072FA706cC66086B-1750353270695's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 100% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 21%(won 100% of 3)
- 70¢ and up: 71%(won 100% of 10)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.