Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

6 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold No (27%) · No at 87¢ · $103K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 27%

Total Value

$102.9K

Combined PnL

$26.4K

Smart Money Entry

89.1¢ → 87.4¢

-2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 22 top traders (27%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$53.8K

Total Shares61,560

Combined PnL-$934.26

Yes16 traders

Total Value$49.1K

Total Shares388,490

Combined PnL+$27.3K

No — 27%Yes — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

34 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 78% · 9

Diverging

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 90% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 64% · 14

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
11 11122	Noavg 87¢	$28.3K	$28.5K	+$224.58	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
TH thebug44CTR	Yesavg 7.6¢	$4.4K	$18.8K	+$9.4K	33% 42-86 (128)
ZP Zptml	Noavg 92¢	$20.0K	$17.5K	-$930	70% 32-14 (46)
NO novice99CTR	Yesavg 6.1¢	$4.9K	$10.1K	+$5.3K	— 1-7 (8)
RememberAmalekCTR	Yesavg 6.2¢	$3.3K	$6.8K	+$3.5K	56% 973-769 (1742)
RD rdba	Noavg 90.9¢	$5.8K	$5.5K	-$224.41	60% 131-88 (219)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yes	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$3.1K	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
0X 0x3D84c9478F783C950B6E3259072FA706cC66086B-1750353270695CTR	Yesavg 4.7¢	$1.1K	$3.0K	+$1.9K	59% 13-9 (22)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 5.6¢	$1.1K	$2.5K	+$1.4K	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
JO JoeBlack01CTR	Yesavg 5¢	$747.67	$1.9K	+$1.1K	60% 474-313 (787)
PaddyAlpha	Noavg 88.2¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$3.22	59% 986-684 (1670)
DonationsReceiverCTR	Yesavg 11.3¢	$688.82	$702.71	+$13.89	60% 245-160 (405)
CO cocococococoCTR	Yesavg 4.7¢	$117.66	$635.78	+$518.12	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
RE rebotsliafCTR	Yes	$568.49	$568.49	+$540.98	25% 185-564 (749)
archaic	Noavg 89.8¢	$569.94	$561.18	-$8.76	85% 1906-339 (2245)
FA failstoberCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$13.5	$336.01	+$318.29	26% 351-985 (1336)
CR Crock95CTR	Yesavg 4.6¢	$110.62	$304.21	+$193.59	57% 255-194 (449)
PU PutsOnPeace	Noavg 86.8¢	$173.6	$174.7	+$1.1	66% 955-482 (1437)
DEGENKHANCTR	Yesavg 6.2¢	$104.21	$105.25	+$1.04	66% 1107-565 (1672)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$36.56	$36.56	+$34.3	7% 14-187 (201)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.8¢	$13.61	$34.98	+$21.38	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.04	$2.4	+$2.4	33% 6263-12990 (19253)

11122

Invested

$28,279.46

Value

$28.5K

PnL

+$224.58

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

thebug44CTR

Yes

Invested

$4,418.5

Value

$18.8K

PnL

+$9.4K

Record

33%

42-86 (128)

Zptml

Invested

$20,000

Value

$17.5K

PnL

-$930

Record

70%

32-14 (46)

novice99CTR

Yes

Invested

$4,856.99

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$5.3K

Record

—

1-7 (8)

RememberAmalekCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,321.36

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$3.5K

Record

56%

973-769 (1742)

rdba

Invested

$5,754.98

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$224.41

Record

60%

131-88 (219)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,317.05

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

0x3D84c9478F783C950B6E3259072FA706cC66086B-1750353270695CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,113.48

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

59%

13-9 (22)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,088.49

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

JoeBlack01CTR

Yes

Invested

$747.67

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

60%

474-313 (787)

PaddyAlpha

Invested

$1,529.38

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$3.22

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

DonationsReceiverCTR

Yes

Invested

$688.82

Value

$702.71

PnL

+$13.89

Record

60%

245-160 (405)

cocococococoCTR

Yes

Invested

$117.66

Value

$635.78

PnL

+$518.12

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

rebotsliafCTR

Yes

Invested

$568.49

Value

$568.49

PnL

+$540.98

Record

25%

185-564 (749)

archaic

Invested

$569.94

Value

$561.18

PnL

-$8.76

Record

85%

1906-339 (2245)

failstoberCTR

Yes

Invested

$13.5

Value

$336.01

PnL

+$318.29

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

Crock95CTR

Yes

Invested

$110.62

Value

$304.21

PnL

+$193.59

Record

57%

255-194 (449)

PutsOnPeace

Invested

$173.6

Value

$174.7

PnL

+$1.1

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

DEGENKHANCTR

Yes

Invested

$104.21

Value

$105.25

PnL

+$1.04

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.56

Value

$36.56

PnL

+$34.3

Record

14-187 (201)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.61

Value

$34.98

PnL

+$21.38

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$2.4

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 22 top traders (27%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

34 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 78% · 9

Diverging

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 90% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 64% · 14

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.8%

87.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.