Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

4 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold No (13%) · No at 84¢ · $678K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 13%

Total Value

$678.1K

Combined PnL

$-83.3K

Smart Money Entry

51.8¢ → 83.8¢

+62% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 32 top traders (13%)28 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$516.0K

Total Shares525,584

Combined PnL+$10.9K

Yes28 traders

Total Value$162.1K

Total Shares867,449

Combined PnL$-94.3K

No — 13%Yes — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-76 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

237 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 88% · 16

Diverging

sharpYes 88% · 8

Diverging

ctrYes 91% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 85% · 20

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 88% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WO wokerjoesleeper	Noavg 50¢	$465.1K	$465.0K	-$57.37	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
GA gatorrCTR	Yesavg 24.8¢	$96.2K	$61.4K	$-34.7K	49% 389-405 (794)
0x6e82b93eb57b01a63027bd0c6d2f3f04934a752c	Noavg 65.5¢	$39.9K	$50.9K	+$11.0K	55% 555-461 (1016)
CO cocos228CTR	Yesavg 23.8¢	$2.5K	$28.6K	$-30.2K	72% 68-27 (95)
OK oklrCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$28.0K	$28.0K	+$0	88% 22-3 (25)
0X 0x3D84c9478F783C950B6E3259072FA706cC66086B-1750353270695CTR	Yesavg 25.8¢	$24.9K	$15.4K	$-9.2K	59% 13-9 (22)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 22.3¢	$272.61	$9.4K	$-9.6K	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
FA failstoberCTR	Yesavg 49.3¢	$11.5K	$4.3K	$-7.3K	26% 351-985 (1336)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 8.2¢	$2.1K	$2.9K	+$797.88	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
RE rebotsliafCTR	Yesavg 13.9¢	$135.0K	$2.0K	+$411.27	25% 185-564 (749)
88 881112CTR	Yesavg 17.8¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$158.25	37% 566-944 (1510)
mombilCTR	Yesavg 15.8¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$28.51	55% 1191-966 (2157)
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR	Yesavg 26.3¢	$659.05	$1.4K	-$944.85	32% 742-1577 (2319)
0X 0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR	Yesavg 14.6¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$129.83	54% 325-279 (604)
0xdc3E831cadCTR	Yesavg 41.4¢	$2.4K	$945.82	$-1.5K	49% 1830-1896 (3726)
TP tphhhCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$809.71	$809.71	-$0	91% 631-60 (691)
RD rdbaCTR	Yesavg 49.9¢	$2.1K	$667.27	$-1.4K	60% 131-88 (219)
LO Logan.CTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$13.42	$318	+$322	41% 648-925 (1573)
GollumGekkoCTR	Yesavg 31.8¢	$276.53	$280.84	+$4.31	68% 2074-957 (3031)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 24.7¢	$424.84	$260.47	-$137.79	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
George.SmileyCTR	Yesavg 27.8¢	$278	$254.4	-$233.2	62% 142-88 (230)
QualitativeCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$744	$238.5	-$505.5	58% 1153-825 (1978)
DonkovCTR	Yesavg 24.5¢	$126.95	$129.55	+$2.6	71% 968-396 (1364)
PU PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.5¢	$78	$63.6	-$12.8	66% 955-482 (1437)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 84.7¢	$385.96	$50.79	-$7.78	56% 14224-11030 (25254)

wokerjoesleeper

Invested

$465,084.27

Value

$465.0K

PnL

-$57.37

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

gatorrCTR

Yes

Invested

$96,174.52

Value

$61.4K

PnL

$-34.7K

Record

49%

389-405 (794)

0x6e82b93eb57b01a63027bd0c6d2f3f04934a752c

Invested

$39,929.5

Value

$50.9K

PnL

+$11.0K

Record

55%

555-461 (1016)

cocos228CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,504.6

Value

$28.6K

PnL

$-30.2K

Record

72%

68-27 (95)

oklrCTR

Yes

Invested

$27,954

Value

$28.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

88%

22-3 (25)

0x3D84c9478F783C950B6E3259072FA706cC66086B-1750353270695CTR

Yes

Invested

$24,937.56

Value

$15.4K

PnL

$-9.2K

Record

59%

13-9 (22)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$272.61

Value

$9.4K

PnL

$-9.6K

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

failstoberCTR

Yes

Invested

$11,539.74

Value

$4.3K

PnL

$-7.3K

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,055.21

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$797.88

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

rebotsliafCTR

Yes

Invested

$134,953.54

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$411.27

Record

25%

185-564 (749)

881112CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,892.66

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$158.25

Record

37%

566-944 (1510)

mombilCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,673.33

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$28.51

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR

Yes

Invested

$659.05

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$944.85

Record

32%

742-1577 (2319)

0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,084.99

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$129.83

Record

54%

325-279 (604)

0xdc3E831cadCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,449.93

Value

$945.82

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

49%

1830-1896 (3726)

tphhhCTR

Yes

Invested

$809.71

Value

$809.71

PnL

-$0

Record

91%

631-60 (691)

rdbaCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,081.55

Value

$667.27

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

60%

131-88 (219)

Logan.CTR

Yes

Invested

$13.42

Value

$318

PnL

+$322

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

GollumGekkoCTR

Yes

Invested

$276.53

Value

$280.84

PnL

+$4.31

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$424.84

Value

$260.47

PnL

-$137.79

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

George.SmileyCTR

Yes

Invested

$278

Value

$254.4

PnL

-$233.2

Record

62%

142-88 (230)

QualitativeCTR

Yes

Invested

$744

Value

$238.5

PnL

-$505.5

Record

58%

1153-825 (1978)

DonkovCTR

Yes

Invested

$126.95

Value

$129.55

PnL

+$2.6

Record

71%

968-396 (1364)

PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78

Value

$63.6

PnL

-$12.8

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

ghorrock

Invested

$385.96

Value

$50.79

PnL

-$7.78

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 32 top traders (13%)28 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-76 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

237 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 88% · 16

Diverging

sharpYes 88% · 8

Diverging

ctrYes 91% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 85% · 20

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 88% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.3%

83.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.