Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (88%). 29 of 32 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

29 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (91%) · Yes at 12¢ · $129K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 91%

Total Value

$129.2K

Combined PnL

$-13.0K

Smart Money Entry

16.6¢ → 11.8¢

-28% since entry · 26 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

29 of 32 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)29 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes29 traders

Total Value$118.1K

Total Shares976,004

Combined PnL$-13.2K

No3 traders

Total Value$11.1K

Total Shares12,580

Combined PnL+$194.33

Yes — 91%No — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

30 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

187 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

91% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 93% · 15

Aligned

sharpYes 91% · 11

Aligned

ctrYes 90% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 91% · 22

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 93% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x3D84c9478F783C950B6E3259072FA706cC66086B-1750353270695CTR	Yesavg 15.2¢	$11.6K	$46.0K	$-1.6K	59% 13-9 (22)
gopfan2CTR	Yesavg 17.2¢	$34.9K	$23.1K	$-10.3K	51% 901-875 (1776)
CQ cqsCTR	Yesavg 17¢	$17.2K	$12.1K	$-5.2K	65% 228-122 (350)
ZP Zptml	Noavg 86.8¢	$10.1K	$10.3K	+$154.11	70% 32-14 (46)
mombilCTR	Yesavg 11.8¢	$6.5K	$6.5K	+$58.43	55% 1191-966 (2157)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 35.5¢	$1.7K	$6.4K	+$4.8K	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yes	$5.8K	$5.8K	+$5.3K	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 16.5¢	$6.0K	$4.5K	$-1.5K	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
SwissMissCTR	Yesavg 15¢	$203.1K	$2.5K	$-4.5K	66% 476-245 (721)
Roflan-ludomanCTR	Yesavg 9.4¢	$1.9K	$2.4K	+$493.14	62% 649-396 (1045)
scottiliciousCTR	Yesavg 18¢	$2.5K	$1.6K	-$834.02	82% 945-201 (1146)
CarCTR	Yesavg 15.2¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	-$280.29	67% 4164-2026 (6190)
TH thebug44CTR	Yesavg 8.5¢	$943.05	$1.3K	+$378.94	33% 42-86 (128)
88 881112CTR	Yesavg 8.3¢	$532.04	$772.82	+$224.84	37% 566-944 (1510)
RD rdba	Noavg 83.8¢	$815.55	$771.72	+$36.98	60% 131-88 (219)
KimJonEnCTR	Yesavg 10.4¢	$631.8	$732.3	+$85.37	75% 946-311 (1257)
DonationsReceiverCTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$506.03	$672.76	+$152.84	60% 245-160 (405)
0X 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR	Yesavg 17.1¢	$172.73	$363	-$151.6	60% 1348-884 (2232)
George.SmileyCTR	Yesavg 16.6¢	$498	$363	-$142.5	62% 142-88 (230)
ZaratustraCTR	Yes	$363	$363	-$173.6	62% 351-214 (565)
GO GooooooollllllllllCTR	Yesavg 17.1¢	$381.77	$264.56	-$117.21	50% 1233-1231 (2464)
IN insideroCTR	Yesavg 17¢	$326.03	$232.06	-$98.77	76% 291-93 (384)
PaddyAlphaCTR	Yesavg 9.9¢	$172.68	$200.72	+$28.04	59% 986-684 (1670)
kekkoneCTR	Yesavg 16.9¢	$103.34	$74.8	-$28.54	73% 1124-417 (1541)
PU PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$64.81	$72.6	+$7.79	66% 955-482 (1437)

0x3D84c9478F783C950B6E3259072FA706cC66086B-1750353270695CTR

Yes

Invested

$11,605.49

Value

$46.0K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

59%

13-9 (22)

gopfan2CTR

Yes

Invested

$34,941.07

Value

$23.1K

PnL

$-10.3K

Record

51%

901-875 (1776)

cqsCTR

Yes

Invested

$17,250

Value

$12.1K

PnL

$-5.2K

Record

65%

228-122 (350)

Zptml

Invested

$10,124.63

Value

$10.3K

PnL

+$154.11

Record

70%

32-14 (46)

mombilCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,466.22

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$58.43

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,654.53

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$4.8K

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,803.96

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$5.3K

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,977.24

Value

$4.5K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

SwissMissCTR

Yes

Invested

$203,074.95

Value

$2.5K

PnL

$-4.5K

Record

66%

476-245 (721)

Roflan-ludomanCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,876.87

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$493.14

Record

62%

649-396 (1045)

scottiliciousCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,474.92

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$834.02

Record

82%

945-201 (1146)

CarCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,766.41

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$280.29

Record

67%

4164-2026 (6190)

thebug44CTR

Yes

Invested

$943.05

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$378.94

Record

33%

42-86 (128)

881112CTR

Yes

Invested

$532.04

Value

$772.82

PnL

+$224.84

Record

37%

566-944 (1510)

rdba

Invested

$815.55

Value

$771.72

PnL

+$36.98

Record

60%

131-88 (219)

KimJonEnCTR

Yes

Invested

$631.8

Value

$732.3

PnL

+$85.37

Record

75%

946-311 (1257)

DonationsReceiverCTR

Yes

Invested

$506.03

Value

$672.76

PnL

+$152.84

Record

60%

245-160 (405)

0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR

Yes

Invested

$172.73

Value

$363

PnL

-$151.6

Record

60%

1348-884 (2232)

George.SmileyCTR

Yes

Invested

$498

Value

$363

PnL

-$142.5

Record

62%

142-88 (230)

ZaratustraCTR

Yes

Invested

$363

Value

$363

PnL

-$173.6

Record

62%

351-214 (565)

GooooooollllllllllCTR

Yes

Invested

$381.77

Value

$264.56

PnL

-$117.21

Record

50%

1233-1231 (2464)

insideroCTR

Yes

Invested

$326.03

Value

$232.06

PnL

-$98.77

Record

76%

291-93 (384)

PaddyAlphaCTR

Yes

Invested

$172.68

Value

$200.72

PnL

+$28.04

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

kekkoneCTR

Yes

Invested

$103.34

Value

$74.8

PnL

-$28.54

Record

73%

1124-417 (1541)

PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.81

Value

$72.6

PnL

+$7.79

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

29 of 32 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)29 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

30 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

187 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

91% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 93% · 15

Aligned

sharpYes 91% · 11

Aligned

ctrYes 90% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 91% · 22

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 93% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance13.3%

11.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$652.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

752.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.