Consensus PnL $33K · win rate 65% (460–248, n=708) · PM monthly #662 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$33.0K
Record
460W / 248L
Win Rate
65.0%
of 708 settled
Batting Avg
47.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#926
Source
PM monthly #662
Trades
1,554
Markets
1,123
Volume
$2.6M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Yes $1.4K · now 9¢ · in at 6¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
660 settled consensus markets · held side won 66% at an average entry of 64¢- MMA
+5 pts
side won 74% of 43 · avg entry 70¢
ROI +6%
Weakest: Esports — held side won 32% of 38 at an average 37¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI −4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 19%(won 10% of 126)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 41% of 71)
- 50–70¢: 15%(won 59% of 101)
- 70¢ and up: 55%(won 93% of 362)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.