Consensus PnL -$306 · win rate 40% (4–6, n=10) · PM monthly #777 · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
-$306.42
Record
4W / 6L
Win Rate
40.0%
of 10 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2380
Source
PM monthly #777
Record (90 d)
1/1 · 100%
Trades
1
Markets
13
Volume
$162.89
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 7 on the consensus side (43%)- Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027?Yes $25 · now 0¢ · in at 0¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?Yes $20 · now 0¢ · in at 0¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?Yes $12 · now 0¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?Yes $8 · now 0¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?Yes $6 · now 1¢ · in at 0¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?Yes $4 · now 1¢ · in at 0¢against the consensus (No)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $1 · now 72¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (81% of 114)
Specialties
1 settled consensus market · held side won 100% at an average entry of 77¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where 0x6528e4dfAE95B1a096C3ccE287Fb44C96C802006-1790896469009's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 100%(won 100% of 1)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.