Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 99¢ · $358 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$358.22

Combined PnL

-$27.08

Smart Money Entry

99.4¢ → 99.3¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$324.34

Total Shares327

Combined PnL-$0.59

Yes6 traders

Total Value$33.34

Total Shares4,445

Combined PnL-$26.49

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

742h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

12 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 99.6¢	$178.86	$178.2	-$0.66	77% 11691-3586 (15277)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$85.91	$85.65	-$0.26	56% 3737-2986 (6723)
wish-<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$60.15	$60.48	+$0.34	79% 1190-319 (1509)
paddaaCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$40.12	$9.18	-$30.94	56% 839-648 (1487)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$1.54	$9	+$3.32	21% 2284-8698 (10982)
smellyEllieCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$2.26	$5.64	+$3.39	50% 987-1001 (1988)
0X 0x6528e4dfAE95B1a096C3ccE287Fb44C96C802006-1790896469009CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$1.49	$5.58	+$4.09	16% 5-27 (32)
siickCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$4.88	$3.05	-$1.83	57% 770-581 (1351)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$5.41	$0.89	-$4.52	25% 181-542 (723)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$178.86

Value

$178.2

PnL

-$0.66

Record

77%

11691-3586 (15277)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$85.91

Value

$85.65

PnL

-$0.26

Record

56%

3737-2986 (6723)

wish-<$100

Invested

$60.15

Value

$60.48

PnL

+$0.34

Record

79%

1190-319 (1509)

paddaaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.12

Value

$9.18

PnL

-$30.94

Record

56%

839-648 (1487)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.54

Value

PnL

+$3.32

Record

21%

2284-8698 (10982)

smellyEllieCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.26

Value

$5.64

PnL

+$3.39

Record

50%

987-1001 (1988)

0x6528e4dfAE95B1a096C3ccE287Fb44C96C802006-1790896469009CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.49

Value

$5.58

PnL

+$4.09

Record

16%

5-27 (32)

siickCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.88

Value

$3.05

PnL

-$1.83

Record

57%

770-581 (1351)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.41

Value

$0.89

PnL

-$4.52

Record

25%

181-542 (723)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

742h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

12 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.