Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 100¢ · $146 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$145.62
-$55.59
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
22h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.94 | $111.31 | +$35.59 | 56% 3736-2985 (6721) |
0X 0x6528e4dfAE95B1a096C3ccE287Fb44C96C802006-1790896469009CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $14.02 | $24.53 | +$10.51 | 16% 5-27 (32) |
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $65.94 | $5.08 | -$60.86 | 73% 11074-4085 (15159) |
 paddaaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $40.12 | $4.28 | -$35.84 | 56% 839-647 (1486) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $5.41 | $0.42 | -$4.99 | 25% 181-537 (718) |
Invested
$9.94
Value
$111.31
PnL
+$35.59
Record
56%
3736-2985 (6721)
Invested
$14.02
Value
$24.53
PnL
+$10.51
Record
16%
5-27 (32)
Invested
$65.94
Value
$5.08
PnL
-$60.86
Record
73%
11074-4085 (15159)
paddaaCTR<$100Invested
$40.12
Value
$4.28
PnL
-$35.84
Record
56%
839-647 (1486)
Invested
$5.41
Value
$0.42
PnL
-$4.99
Record
25%
181-537 (718)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.