Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $98 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$98.28
-$51.3
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Mature
22h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $15.95 | $86.08 | -$0.12 | 56% 3736-2985 (6721) |
0X 0x6528e4dfAE95B1a096C3ccE287Fb44C96C802006-1790896469009CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $6.58 | $8.22 | +$1.64 | 16% 5-27 (32) |
 paddaaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $40.12 | $3.06 | -$37.06 | 56% 839-647 (1486) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $10.23 | $0.56 | -$9.67 | 25% 181-537 (718) |
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $6.45 | $0.36 | -$6.1 | 30% 2187-5031 (7218) |
Invested
$15.95
Value
$86.08
PnL
-$0.12
Record
56%
3736-2985 (6721)
Invested
$6.58
Value
$8.22
PnL
+$1.64
Record
16%
5-27 (32)
paddaaCTR<$100Invested
$40.12
Value
$3.06
PnL
-$37.06
Record
56%
839-647 (1486)
Invested
$10.23
Value
$0.56
PnL
-$9.67
Record
25%
181-537 (718)
Invested
$6.45
Value
$0.36
PnL
-$6.1
Record
30%
2187-5031 (7218)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.