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7B
Consensus PnL -$31K · win rate 48% (13–14, n=27) · was PM monthly #663 · holds 4 consensus positions
0x7b5c0078...82a04960Polymarket
🔄Contrarian🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$-30.8K
Record
13W / 14L
Win Rate
48.0%
of 27 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1909
Source
PM monthly #663
Trades
10
Markets
34
Volume
$177.2K
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 4 on the consensus side (75%)- Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $6.1K · now 16¢ · in at 28¢with the consensus (45% of 22)
- Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $500 · now 1¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (100% of 15)
- Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?Yes $409 · now 2¢ · in at 9¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Atlanta Hawks win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $59 · now 1¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 9)
Specialties
17 settled consensus markets · held side won 71% at an average entry of 47¢- NBA
+25 pts
side won 70% of 10 · avg entry 45¢
ROI +16%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 18%(won 33% of 3)
- 30–50¢: 24%(won 75% of 4)
- 50–70¢: 53%(won 78% of 9)
- 70¢ and up: 6%(won 100% of 1)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.