Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Atlanta Hawks win the 2027 NBA Finals?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 1.1¢ · $6K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

$582.91

Smart Money Entry

1¢ → 1.1¢

+9% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares587,199

Combined PnL+$582.91

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EdZacharyCTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$1.8K	$2.2K	+$403.1	40% 94-142 (236)
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 1¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$232.86	40% 704-1062 (1766)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 1¢	$764.79	$804.85	+$50.03	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
DO DolphinBallerCTR	Yesavg 1.2¢	$600	$550	-$50	47% 100-113 (213)
LiquidatedDegenCTR	Yesavg 1.4¢	$584.34	$470.75	-$113.54	42% 1081-1477 (2558)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 1¢	$329.65	$346.15	+$18.51	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
NooseracCTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$182.93	$223.58	+$40.65	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 1¢	$132.15	$152.1	+$19.95	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
0X 0x7B5c0078d4F9CC7cd271E8d3c375EB7382A04960-1774346687518CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$77.98	$59.31	-$18.66	46% 12-14 (26)

EdZacharyCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,800

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$403.1

Record

40%

94-142 (236)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,419.59

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$232.86

Record

40%

704-1062 (1766)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$764.79

Value

$804.85

PnL

+$50.03

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

DolphinBallerCTR

Yes

Invested

$600

Value

$550

PnL

-$50

Record

47%

100-113 (213)

LiquidatedDegenCTR

Yes

Invested

$584.34

Value

$470.75

PnL

-$113.54

Record

42%

1081-1477 (2558)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$329.65

Value

$346.15

PnL

+$18.51

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

NooseracCTR

Yes

Invested

$182.93

Value

$223.58

PnL

+$40.65

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$132.15

Value

$152.1

PnL

+$19.95

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

0x7B5c0078d4F9CC7cd271E8d3c375EB7382A04960-1774346687518CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.98

Value

$59.31

PnL

-$18.66

Record

46%

12-14 (26)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.2%

1.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4439.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

4539.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.