Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 15 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

15 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$9.9K

Combined PnL

$-29.0K

Smart Money Entry

2.1¢ → 0.5¢

-74% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 15 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes15 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares1,977,585

Combined PnL$-29.0K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

213 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO novice99CTR	Yesavg 2.3¢	$26.6K	$7.9K	$-25.8K	— 1-7 (8)
0X 0x7B5c0078d4F9CC7cd271E8d3c375EB7382A04960-1774346687518CTR	Yesavg 2.3¢	$2.3K	$500	$-1.7K	46% 12-14 (26)
CO cocococococoCTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$1.8K	$457.1	$-1.3K	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$243.89	$363.47	+$119.58	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yes	$219.89	$219.89	-$68.39	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
TH thebug44CTR	Yesavg 0.5¢	$156.18	$158.42	+$2.24	33% 42-86 (128)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$247.01	$133.02	-$114	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yes	$33.46	$33.46	-$15.47	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$46.26	$32.62	-$13.71	47% 83-94 (177)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$12.97	$16.65	+$18.32	26% 351-985 (1336)
RD rdbaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$26.52	$13.26	-$11.93	60% 131-88 (219)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$9.99	$11	+$1.01	68% 2074-957 (3031)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$3.02	$7.41	-$25.95	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$7.15	$5	+$5.5	41% 648-925 (1573)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$1.1K	$0.2	+$0.22	76% 8934-2819 (11753)

novice99CTR

Yes

Invested

$26,623.7

Value

$7.9K

PnL

$-25.8K

Record

—

1-7 (8)

0x7B5c0078d4F9CC7cd271E8d3c375EB7382A04960-1774346687518CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,300

Value

$500

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

46%

12-14 (26)

cocococococoCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,774.8

Value

$457.1

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$243.89

Value

$363.47

PnL

+$119.58

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$219.89

Value

$219.89

PnL

-$68.39

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

thebug44CTR

Yes

Invested

$156.18

Value

$158.42

PnL

+$2.24

Record

33%

42-86 (128)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$247.01

Value

$133.02

PnL

-$114

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.46

Value

$33.46

PnL

-$15.47

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.26

Value

$32.62

PnL

-$13.71

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.97

Value

$16.65

PnL

+$18.32

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

rdbaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.52

Value

$13.26

PnL

-$11.93

Record

60%

131-88 (219)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.99

Value

$11

PnL

+$1.01

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.02

Value

$7.41

PnL

-$25.95

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.15

Value

PnL

+$5.5

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,113.45

Value

$0.2

PnL

+$0.22

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 15 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

213 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6107.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

6207.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.