Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (85%). 10 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?

10 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (45%) · Yes at 16¢ · $135K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 45%

Total Value

$135.3K

Combined PnL

$-28.7K

Smart Money Entry

33.3¢ → 15.5¢

-54% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 22 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$95.6K

Total Shares113,801

Combined PnL+$17.7K

Yes10 traders

Total Value$39.7K

Total Shares262,693

Combined PnL$-46.4K

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Late

2457h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

41 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

45% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 83% · 6

Diverging

sharpNo 89% · 9

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 18

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952	Noavg 86¢	$36.4K	$32.8K	-$515.47	85% 605-108 (713)
MA max1ved	Noavg 52.6¢	$18.9K	$30.1K	+$11.5K	— 8-1 (9)
0X 0xD2E82888200859f46Fc3605CC3b3d2f6Ee9eEEEa-1776953176201	Noavg 65.6¢	$15.9K	$20.4K	+$4.6K	54% 13-11 (24)
BTCmaxiCTR	Yesavg 28.1¢	$22.9K	$12.2K	$-10.7K	51% 32-31 (63)
TO TokorCTR	Yesavg 31.5¢	$18.5K	$9.1K	$-9.4K	62% 795-490 (1285)
CR CreamethodCTR	Yesavg 45.6¢	$27.3K	$9.0K	$-18.0K	— 7-6 (13)
Valen9	Noavg 64.6¢	$5.8K	$7.6K	+$1.8K	60% 407-274 (681)
0X 0x7B5c0078d4F9CC7cd271E8d3c375EB7382A04960-1774346687518CTR	Yesavg 28¢	$11.1K	$6.1K	$-5.1K	46% 12-14 (26)
RI Rin2x	Noavg 84.7¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$4.58	86% 2156-340 (2496)
justdanceCTR	Yesavg 36.9¢	$2.5K	$1.4K	$-1.1K	52% 2726-2552 (5278)
clazzy1	Noavg 65.7¢	$985	$1.3K	+$282.5	62% 413-249 (662)
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR	Yesavg 37.9¢	$2.9K	$1.2K	$-1.7K	54% 229-195 (424)
PU PutsOnPeace	Noavg 64.5¢	$624.07	$839.99	+$215.91	66% 955-482 (1437)
LU LucasMeow	Noavg 84¢	$802.23	$811.78	+$9.55	96% 160-7 (167)
0X 0x3fd0190eb137e335db080b9855f90c86849f0022CTR	Yesavg 21¢	$842.09	$601.49	-$220.55	73% 160-59 (219)
0X 0xDCCrane	Noavg 75¢	$201.21	$225.36	+$25.49	80% 16-4 (20)
LA LaarsYCTR	Yesavg 35.3¢	$265.78	$114.42	-$151.35	51% 3435-3355 (6790)
JN JnStrtPrdctnMrkts<$100	Noavg 66¢	$27.74	$35.31	+$7.78	83% 63-13 (76)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 87.7¢	$505.39	$21.41	-$165.66	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$22	$15	-$6.5	51% 527-509 (1036)
PH phdcapital<$100	Noavg 84¢	$5.25	$5.25	+$0.03	94% 259-17 (276)
RE resuilddeCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$2.82	$2.82	+$0.09	— 2-5 (7)

0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952

Invested

$36,353.54

Value

$32.8K

PnL

-$515.47

Record

85%

605-108 (713)

max1ved

Invested

$18,854.17

Value

$30.1K

PnL

+$11.5K

Record

—

8-1 (9)

0xD2E82888200859f46Fc3605CC3b3d2f6Ee9eEEEa-1776953176201

Invested

$15,897.44

Value

$20.4K

PnL

+$4.6K

Record

54%

13-11 (24)

BTCmaxiCTR

Yes

Invested

$22,885.1

Value

$12.2K

PnL

$-10.7K

Record

51%

32-31 (63)

TokorCTR

Yes

Invested

$18,533.43

Value

$9.1K

PnL

$-9.4K

Record

62%

795-490 (1285)

CreamethodCTR

Yes

Invested

$27,324.63

Value

$9.0K

PnL

$-18.0K

Record

—

7-6 (13)

Valen9

Invested

$5,809.99

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

60%

407-274 (681)

0x7B5c0078d4F9CC7cd271E8d3c375EB7382A04960-1774346687518CTR

Yes

Invested

$11,121.27

Value

$6.1K

PnL

$-5.1K

Record

46%

12-14 (26)

Rin2x

Invested

$1,605.42

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$4.58

Record

86%

2156-340 (2496)

justdanceCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,503.24

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

52%

2726-2552 (5278)

clazzy1

Invested

$985

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$282.5

Record

62%

413-249 (662)

Dimpled-FoalCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,922.03

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

54%

229-195 (424)

PutsOnPeace

Invested

$624.07

Value

$839.99

PnL

+$215.91

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

LucasMeow

Invested

$802.23

Value

$811.78

PnL

+$9.55

Record

96%

160-7 (167)

0x3fd0190eb137e335db080b9855f90c86849f0022CTR

Yes

Invested

$842.09

Value

$601.49

PnL

-$220.55

Record

73%

160-59 (219)

0xDCCrane

Invested

$201.21

Value

$225.36

PnL

+$25.49

Record

80%

16-4 (20)

LaarsYCTR

Yes

Invested

$265.78

Value

$114.42

PnL

-$151.35

Record

51%

3435-3355 (6790)

JnStrtPrdctnMrkts<$100

Invested

$27.74

Value

$35.31

PnL

+$7.78

Record

83%

63-13 (76)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$505.39

Value

$21.41

PnL

-$165.66

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22

Value

$15

PnL

-$6.5

Record

51%

527-509 (1036)

phdcapital<$100

Invested

$5.25

Value

$5.25

PnL

+$0.03

Record

94%

259-17 (276)

resuilddeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.82

Value

$2.82

PnL

+$0.09

Record

—

2-5 (7)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 22 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Late

2457h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

41 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

45% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 83% · 6

Diverging

sharpNo 89% · 9

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 18

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.5%

15.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$472.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

572.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.