Consensus PnL $51K · win rate 12% (246–1769, n=2015) · hand-picked wallet · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$51.2K
Record
246W / 1769L
Win Rate
12.0%
of 2015 settled
Batting Avg
36.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2249
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
66,966
Markets
3,041
Volume
$8.8M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 4 on the consensus side (25%)- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $20K · now 16¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (84% of 37)
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?Yes $308 · now 17¢ · in at 0¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?Yes $249 · now 12¢ · in at 0¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?Yes $12 · now 0¢ · in at 1¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
2,378 settled consensus markets · held side won 15% at an average entry of 14¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where LinaBell🦊's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Politics — held side won 91% of 11 at an average 95¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 87%(won 2% of 2062)
- 30–50¢: 1%(won 96% of 23)
- 50–70¢: 1%(won 100% of 25)
- 70¢ and up: 11%(won 99% of 268)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.