Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 80%
$2.3K
$49.6
91.4¢ → 99.8¢
+9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI bipbipbop | Noavg 89.4¢ | $5.4K | $1.7K | +$46.38 | 64% 2397-1323 (3720) |
KO korda77 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $265.52 | $265.27 | -$0.25 | 52% 5046-4717 (9763) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 95.9¢ | $430.13 | $134.56 | +$9.48 | 56% 14257-11059 (25316) |
ME merod | Noavg 97.2¢ | $131.21 | $132.98 | +$1.77 | 51% 2516-2396 (4912) |
 LinaBell🦊CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $18.89 | $11.11 | -$7.78 | 19% 532-2310 (2842) |
Invested
$5,415.98
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$46.38
Record
64%
2397-1323 (3720)
Invested
$265.52
Value
$265.27
PnL
-$0.25
Record
52%
5046-4717 (9763)
Invested
$430.13
Value
$134.56
PnL
+$9.48
Record
56%
14257-11059 (25316)
Invested
$131.21
Value
$132.98
PnL
+$1.77
Record
51%
2516-2396 (4912)
LinaBell🦊CTR<$100Invested
$18.89
Value
$11.11
PnL
-$7.78
Record
19%
532-2310 (2842)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.