Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (84%). 27 of 33 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

27 of 33 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (82%) · Yes at 16¢ · $117K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 82%

Total Value

$117.2K

Combined PnL

$-9.5K

Smart Money Entry

12.7¢ → 16¢

+26% since entry · 25 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

27 of 33 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)27 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes27 traders

Total Value$112.7K

Total Shares683,143

Combined PnL$-9.7K

No6 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares5,323

Combined PnL+$237.85

Yes — 82%No — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

27 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

235 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 15

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 6

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 93% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 85% · 20

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FA failstoberCTR	Yesavg 14.3¢	$88.1K	$63.2K	$-24.9K	26% 351-985 (1336)
NO novice99CTR	Yesavg 13.4¢	$10.1K	$12.4K	+$2.3K	— 1-7 (8)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yes	$8.0K	$8.0K	+$3.1K	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
foodenjoyerCTR	Yesavg 8.9¢	$3.6K	$7.0K	+$3.2K	49% 47-49 (96)
RE rebotsliafCTR	Yesavg 7.7¢	$2.0K	$5.7K	+$3.0K	25% 185-564 (749)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 5.6¢	$1.7K	$3.9K	+$2.2K	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 7.7¢	$3.8K	$3.5K	-$242.89	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
studmuffin6969	Noavg 79.1¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$147	59% 1027-717 (1744)
TH thebug44CTR	Yesavg 16.8¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$74.8	33% 42-86 (128)
0x6e82b93eb57b01a63027bd0c6d2f3f04934a752cCTR	Yesavg 15.7¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$66.8	55% 555-461 (1016)
SQ SquirrelTheMerchant	Noavg 78.2¢	$992.59	$1.1K	+$77.03	55% 78-65 (143)
RememberAmalekCTR	Yesavg 11.2¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$66.95	56% 973-769 (1742)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR	Yesavg 6.5¢	$415.03	$1.0K	+$604.87	47% 83-94 (177)
CO cocococococoCTR	Yesavg 12.8¢	$689.45	$887.17	+$197.72	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR	Yesavg 14.6¢	$779.74	$678.18	-$101.56	56% 15371-11922 (27293)
mombilCTR	Yes	$495	$495	+$237.28	55% 1191-966 (2157)
4751346	Noavg 80.9¢	$356.07	$369.59	+$13.51	72% 1257-483 (1740)
CR Crock95CTR	Yesavg 8.1¢	$191.83	$368.05	+$176.22	57% 255-194 (449)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 8.1¢	$163.29	$331.78	+$168.49	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
bernardbulletinCTR	Yesavg 9.3¢	$186.99	$328.23	+$141.24	69% 987-450 (1437)
PaddyAlpha	Noavg 86.6¢	$310.68	$300.89	-$9.79	59% 986-684 (1670)
QualitativeCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$5.91	$247.5	+$240.09	58% 1153-825 (1978)
ME melonmanm	Noavg 79.6¢	$199	$210	+$10	65% 526-281 (807)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 10.1¢	$108.57	$127.67	+$19.1	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
DEGENKHANCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.5¢	$73.16	$73.25	+$0.09	66% 1107-565 (1672)

failstoberCTR

Yes

Invested

$88,117.47

Value

$63.2K

PnL

$-24.9K

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

novice99CTR

Yes

Invested

$10,077.78

Value

$12.4K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

—

1-7 (8)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$8,011.5

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

foodenjoyerCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,591.82

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

49%

47-49 (96)

rebotsliafCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,023.48

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

25%

185-564 (749)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,712.29

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,765.25

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$242.89

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

studmuffin6969

Invested

$2,372.99

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$147

Record

59%

1027-717 (1744)

thebug44CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,640.17

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$74.8

Record

33%

42-86 (128)

0x6e82b93eb57b01a63027bd0c6d2f3f04934a752cCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,508.36

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$66.8

Record

55%

555-461 (1016)

SquirrelTheMerchant

Invested

$992.59

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$77.03

Record

55%

78-65 (143)

RememberAmalekCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,093.4

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$66.95

Record

56%

973-769 (1742)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR

Yes

Invested

$415.03

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$604.87

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

cocococococoCTR

Yes

Invested

$689.45

Value

$887.17

PnL

+$197.72

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR

Yes

Invested

$779.74

Value

$678.18

PnL

-$101.56

Record

56%

15371-11922 (27293)

mombilCTR

Yes

Invested

$495

Value

$495

PnL

+$237.28

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

4751346

Invested

$356.07

Value

$369.59

PnL

+$13.51

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

Crock95CTR

Yes

Invested

$191.83

Value

$368.05

PnL

+$176.22

Record

57%

255-194 (449)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$163.29

Value

$331.78

PnL

+$168.49

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

bernardbulletinCTR

Yes

Invested

$186.99

Value

$328.23

PnL

+$141.24

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

PaddyAlpha

Invested

$310.68

Value

$300.89

PnL

-$9.79

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

QualitativeCTR

Yes

Invested

$5.91

Value

$247.5

PnL

+$240.09

Record

58%

1153-825 (1978)

melonmanm

Invested

$199

Value

$210

PnL

+$10

Record

65%

526-281 (807)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$108.57

Value

$127.67

PnL

+$19.1

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

DEGENKHANCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.16

Value

$73.25

PnL

+$0.09

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

27 of 33 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)27 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

27 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

235 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 15

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 6

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 93% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 85% · 20

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.6%

16.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$469.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

569.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.