Consensus PnL -$3.6M · win rate 29% (356–875, n=1231) · was PM monthly #931 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-3.6M
Record
356W / 875L
Win Rate
29.0%
of 1231 settled
Batting Avg
68.2%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2207
Source
PM monthly #931
Trades
182,172
Markets
4,731
Volume
$37.4M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Counter-Strike: Acend vs FOKUS - Map 1 WinnerAcend $839 · now 100¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (50% of 7)
- Counter-Strike: naocopulas vs Low Cortisol (BO3) - Gamers Club Masters PlayoffsLow Cortisol $36 · now 75¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (43% of 7)
Specialties
1,896 settled consensus markets · held side won 90% at an average entry of 71¢- Esports
+23 pts
side won 100% of 1511 · avg entry 77¢
ROI −10%
Weakest: NHL — held side won 46% of 84 at an average 51¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI −4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 23% of 56)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 61% of 241)
- 50–70¢: 23%(won 90% of 440)
- 70¢ and up: 61%(won 99% of 1159)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.