Counter-Strike: naocopulas vs Low Cortisol (BO3) - Gamers Club Masters Playoffs
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Low Cortisol (43%) · Low Cortisol at 98¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Low Cortisol
7
Low Cortisol 43%
$7.0K
$69.04
66.4¢ → 97.5¢
+47% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralLow Cortisol at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 JohnLKellyJr | Low Cortisolavg 65.8¢ | $4.0K | $3.7K | -$230.88 | 52% 1260-1146 (2406) |
WI WiretransferxyzCTR | naocopulasavg 34.6¢ | $2.6K | $2.9K | +$297.69 | 53% 760-672 (1432) |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | Low Cortisolavg 82¢ | $200.72 | $206.64 | +$5.93 | 54% 2455-2112 (4567) |
MA manoamanoCTR<$100 | naocopulasavg 38¢ | $97.04 | $97.04 | +$0 | 51% 506-478 (984) |
28 2829CTR<$100 | naocopulasavg 34¢ | $33.66 | $37.62 | -$0.5 | 46% 425-497 (922) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Low Cortisolavg 70¢ | $2.1 | $2.28 | +$0.18 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | naocopulasavg 12¢ | $5.4 | $2.03 | -$3.38 | 48% 8966-9597 (18563) |
JohnLKellyJrInvested
$3,950.77
Value
$3.7K
PnL
-$230.88
Record
52%
1260-1146 (2406)
Invested
$2,649.46
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$297.69
Record
53%
760-672 (1432)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$200.72
Value
$206.64
PnL
+$5.93
Record
54%
2455-2112 (4567)
Invested
$97.04
Value
$97.04
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
506-478 (984)
Invested
$33.66
Value
$37.62
PnL
-$0.5
Record
46%
425-497 (922)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.1
Value
$2.28
PnL
+$0.18
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
Invested
$5.4
Value
$2.03
PnL
-$3.38
Record
48%
8966-9597 (18563)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.