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D2
Consensus PnL $13K · win rate 56% (10–8, n=18) · PM monthly #915 · holds 2 consensus positions
0xd2e82888...ee9eeeeaPolymarket
🔄Contrarian
Consensus PnL
$12.5K
Record
10W / 8L
Win Rate
56.0%
of 18 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1427
Source
PM monthly #915
Trades
3
Markets
23
Volume
$55.8K
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 2 on the consensus side (0%)- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?No $24K · now 73¢ · in at 41¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?No $20K · now 85¢ · in at 66¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
14 settled consensus markets · held side won 79% at an average entry of 65¢- Crypto
+13 pts
side won 70% of 10 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +23%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 0% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 29%(won 50% of 4)
- 50–70¢: 14%(won 100% of 2)
- 70¢ and up: 50%(won 100% of 7)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.