Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (73%). 13 of 25 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?

13 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (52%) · Yes at 28¢ · $158K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 52%

Total Value

$157.8K

Combined PnL

$-8.7K

Smart Money Entry

56.6¢ → 27.5¢

-51% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 25 top traders (52%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$114.3K

Total Shares158,749

Combined PnL+$31.5K

Yes13 traders

Total Value$43.5K

Total Shares160,158

Combined PnL$-40.2K

No — 48%Yes — 52%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

97 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

54% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (6 on Yes) and the top 1000 (19 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 75% · 8

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 12

Diverging

ctrYes 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 53% · 19

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA max1ved	Noavg 34¢	$11.6K	$24.5K	+$13.1K	— 8-1 (9)
0X 0xD2E82888200859f46Fc3605CC3b3d2f6Ee9eEEEa-1776953176201	Noavg 41.1¢	$14.9K	$24.2K	+$9.3K	54% 13-11 (24)
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952	Noavg 69.9¢	$21.4K	$22.0K	+$770.71	85% 605-108 (713)
BA ballinco	Noavg 73.5¢	$21.6K	$21.1K	-$303.87	53% 153-136 (289)
CR CreamethodCTR	Yesavg 55.8¢	$22.3K	$10.8K	$-11.3K	— 7-6 (13)
TO Tobias1909	Noavg 41.9¢	$5.2K	$8.6K	+$3.3K	57% 395-298 (693)
TO TokorCTR	Yesavg 45.6¢	$11.4K	$6.9K	$-4.5K	62% 795-490 (1285)
0X 0x3fd0190eb137e335db080b9855f90c86849f0022	Noavg 21¢	$2.0K	$6.9K	+$4.9K	73% 160-59 (219)
PW pwnatorulCTR	Yesavg 68¢	$15.4K	$6.2K	$-9.3K	85% 23-4 (27)
justdanceCTR	Yesavg 48.5¢	$5.5K	$5.7K	+$213.3	52% 2726-2552 (5278)
LU LucasMeow	Noavg 72¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	+$30.01	96% 160-7 (167)
PA pakoCTR	Yesavg 65.7¢	$9.2K	$3.7K	$-5.3K	65% 250-132 (382)
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR	Yesavg 52.9¢	$6.5K	$3.3K	$-3.1K	54% 229-195 (424)
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4CTR	Yesavg 54.4¢	$3.5K	$2.7K	-$857.67	54% 785-659 (1444)
0X 0xDCCraneCTR	Yesavg 73.9¢	$6.9K	$2.5K	$-4.4K	80% 16-4 (20)
balthazar	Noavg 66.8¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$107.99	61% 21345-13641 (34986)
RO RobertoRubioCTR	Yesavg 51¢	$2.5K	$1.3K	$-1.2K	81% 145-33 (178)
PU PutsOnPeace	Noavg 48.4¢	$467.07	$864.01	+$396.94	66% 955-482 (1437)
clazzy1	Noavg 52¢	$260	$360	+$102.5	62% 413-249 (662)
LA LaarsYCTR	Yesavg 74.4¢	$698.69	$252.78	-$445.91	51% 3435-3355 (6790)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 75.5¢	$557.61	$137.18	-$224.18	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
RI Rin2x<$100	Noavg 62.5¢	$31.25	$36	+$5	86% 2156-340 (2496)
4751346CTR	Yesavg 82¢	$100.04	$32.94	-$66.49	72% 1257-483 (1740)
GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$30	$27	-$2.5	51% 527-509 (1036)
PI pilimiliCTR<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$31.25	$10.68	-$20.37	62% 151-91 (242)

max1ved

Invested

$11,563.2

Value

$24.5K

PnL

+$13.1K

Record

—

8-1 (9)

0xD2E82888200859f46Fc3605CC3b3d2f6Ee9eEEEa-1776953176201

Invested

$14,912.51

Value

$24.2K

PnL

+$9.3K

Record

54%

13-11 (24)

0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952

Invested

$21,374.41

Value

$22.0K

PnL

+$770.71

Record

85%

605-108 (713)

ballinco

Invested

$21,600.33

Value

$21.1K

PnL

-$303.87

Record

53%

153-136 (289)

CreamethodCTR

Yes

Invested

$22,300

Value

$10.8K

PnL

$-11.3K

Record

—

7-6 (13)

Tobias1909

Invested

$5,247.84

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

57%

395-298 (693)

TokorCTR

Yes

Invested

$11,383.69

Value

$6.9K

PnL

$-4.5K

Record

62%

795-490 (1285)

0x3fd0190eb137e335db080b9855f90c86849f0022

Invested

$2,003.66

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$4.9K

Record

73%

160-59 (219)

pwnatorulCTR

Yes

Invested

$15,436

Value

$6.2K

PnL

$-9.3K

Record

85%

23-4 (27)

justdanceCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,534.5

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$213.3

Record

52%

2726-2552 (5278)

LucasMeow

Invested

$4,320

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$30.01

Record

96%

160-7 (167)

pakoCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,226.44

Value

$3.7K

PnL

$-5.3K

Record

65%

250-132 (382)

Dimpled-FoalCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,477.95

Value

$3.3K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

54%

229-195 (424)

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,531.71

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$857.67

Record

54%

785-659 (1444)

0xDCCraneCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,913.33

Value

$2.5K

PnL

$-4.4K

Record

80%

16-4 (20)

balthazar

Invested

$1,269.9

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$107.99

Record

61%

21345-13641 (34986)

RobertoRubioCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,550

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

81%

145-33 (178)

PutsOnPeace

Invested

$467.07

Value

$864.01

PnL

+$396.94

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

clazzy1

Invested

$260

Value

$360

PnL

+$102.5

Record

62%

413-249 (662)

LaarsYCTR

Yes

Invested

$698.69

Value

$252.78

PnL

-$445.91

Record

51%

3435-3355 (6790)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$557.61

Value

$137.18

PnL

-$224.18

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Rin2x<$100

Invested

$31.25

Value

$36

PnL

+$5

Record

86%

2156-340 (2496)

4751346CTR

Yes

Invested

$100.04

Value

$32.94

PnL

-$66.49

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30

Value

$27

PnL

-$2.5

Record

51%

527-509 (1036)

pilimiliCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.25

Value

$10.68

PnL

-$20.37

Record

62%

151-91 (242)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 25 top traders (52%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

97 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

54% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (6 on Yes) and the top 1000 (19 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 75% · 8

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 12

Diverging

ctrYes 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 53% · 19

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.9%

27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$234.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

334.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.