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3D
Consensus PnL -$340K · win rate 90% (19–2, n=21) · was PM monthly #420 · holds 10 consensus positions
0x3d1ce8bb...3c70e45cPolymarket
🐋Whale🎯Sharp🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$-340.4K
Record
19W / 2L
Win Rate
90.0%
of 21 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#243
Source
PM monthly #420
Trades
1
Markets
33
Volume
$956.7K
Top consensus positions
10 in listed consensus markets · 9 of 10 on the consensus side (90%)- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?No $73K · now 88¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (83% of 23)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?No $63K · now 75¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (43% of 14)
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?No $48K · now 55¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (22% of 9)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?No $47K · now 93¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (77% of 26)
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?No $36K · now 83¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (22% of 9)
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?No $30K · now 88¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (50% of 16)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?No $5.8K · now 85¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (72% of 18)
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $2.5K · now 28¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (52% of 25)
Specialties
18 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 95¢- Crypto
+5 pts
side won 100% of 18 · avg entry 95¢
ROI +5%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 100% of 1)
- 70¢ and up: 94%(won 100% of 17)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.