Consensus PnL $67K · win rate 34% (4412–8726, n=13138) · PM monthly #4 · holds 20 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$66.8K
Record
4412W / 8726L
Win Rate
34.0%
of 13138 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1614
Source
PM monthly #4
Record (90 d)
113/4307 · 3%
Trades
29
Markets
38,579
Volume
$274.9K
Loading this trader’s full history
Large accounts take up to ~20 s
Loading positions and trades…
Top consensus positions
20 in listed consensus markets · 16 of 20 on the consensus side (80%)- Will A win the 2026 WSOP Player of the Year?Yes $48 · now 50¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will B win the 2026 WSOP Player of the Year?Yes $48 · now 50¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will C win the 2026 WSOP Player of the Year?Yes $48 · now 50¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will D win the 2026 WSOP Player of the Year?Yes $48 · now 50¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will E win the 2026 WSOP Player of the Year?Yes $48 · now 50¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will F win the 2026 WSOP Player of the Year?Yes $48 · now 50¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will G win the 2026 WSOP Player of the Year?Yes $48 · now 50¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will H win the 2026 WSOP Player of the Year?Yes $48 · now 50¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
Specialties
2,809 settled consensus markets · held side won 4% at an average entry of 6¢- F1
+3 pts
side won 7% of 73 · avg entry 4¢
ROI −1%
Weakest: Economy — held side won 2% of 50 at an average 15¢ entry (−13 pts against the price), ROI −12%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 97%(won 3% of 2730)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 29% of 79)
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.