Consensus PnL $106K · win rate 51% (242–235, n=477) · was PM monthly #462 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$105.8K
Record
242W / 235L
Win Rate
51.0%
of 477 settled
Batting Avg
71.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1803
Source
PM monthly #462
Record (90 d)
130/263 · 49%
Trades
1,184
Markets
719
Volume
$3.1M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group ATeam Falcons $1.9K · now 32¢ · in at 32¢with the consensus (60% of 95)
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 WinnerTeam Falcons $695 · now 56¢ · in at 57¢against the consensus (Natus Vincere)
Specialties
393 settled consensus markets · held side won 46% at an average entry of 46¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where 0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947a's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Esports — held side won 45% of 154 at an average 46¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI −5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 29%(won 18% of 115)
- 30–50¢: 29%(won 38% of 113)
- 50–70¢: 25%(won 63% of 100)
- 70¢ and up: 17%(won 80% of 65)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.