Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner

22 of 41 top Polymarket traders hold Team Falcons (54%) · Team Falcons at 71¢ · $190K held · ends Nov 2

Natus Vincere30¢Team Falcons70¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Falcons

Consensus Traders

Team Falcons 54%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$189.5K

Combined PnL

$-3.6K

Smart Money Entry

58.6¢ → 70.5¢

+20% since entry · 22 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Falcons at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Falcons

22 of 41 top traders (54%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Natus Vincere30%

Team Falcons71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Falcons22 traders

Total Value$77.1K

Total Shares134,986

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Natus Vincere19 traders

Total Value$60.8K

Total Shares143,540

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Team Falcons — 54%Natus Vincere — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Team Falconsavg 57.8¢	$37.2K	$32.5K	$-4.7K	50% 19815-20158 (39973)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Team Falconsavg 58.8¢	$21.6K	$22.3K	+$639.94	54% 2550-2185 (4735)
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 58.8¢	$12.3K	$15.0K	+$2.7K
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 36.4¢	$9.3K	$7.3K	$-2.0K
NS NS13	Team Falconsavg 58.8¢	$13.9K	$14.0K	+$168.54	51% 386-365 (751)
FK fkALCTR	Natus Vincereavg 43.7¢	$13.1K	$12.1K	-$950	63% 2047-1221 (3268)
AN AnibalAugustoSardinhaCTR	Natus Vincereavg 41¢	$8.2K	$10.5K	+$2.3K	53% 85-75 (160)
0X 0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947aARB<$100	Team Falconsavg 58.6¢	$9.8K	$9.7K	-$34.66	48% 315-345 (660)
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 58.6¢	$5.9K	$5.1K	-$824.16
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 41¢	$3.8K	$4.6K	+$789.5
FA facaigege	Team Falconsavg 56.7¢	$8.0K	$9.7K	+$1.7K	49% 416-439 (855)
0X 0x42145460F32A84Dd27DF2dbd7afbeE779213dB99-1759056243872	Team Falconsavg 60¢	$8.9K	$8.8K	-$74	43% 346-461 (807)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Team Falconsavg 59.4¢	$6.0K	$6.2K	+$171.13	52% 14029-12787 (26816)
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 59.4¢	$3.6K	$4.3K	+$730.16
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 37.1¢	$2.4K	$1.9K	-$559.03
RE redvinnyCTR	Natus Vincereavg 49.1¢	$8.3K	$5.6K	$-1.4K	75% 1530-506 (2036)
GO GooooooollllllllllCTR	Natus Vincereavg 40¢	$6.0K	$5.5K	-$525	50% 1238-1238 (2476)
BA BabooouCTR	Natus Vincereavg 42¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$180	51% 216-206 (422)
RNGUziCTR	Natus Vincereavg 43¢	$5.0K	$4.7K	-$292.13	50% 227-223 (450)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Team Falconsavg 56.9¢	$4.3K	$4.4K	+$28.57	56% 7461-5982 (13443)
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 56.9¢	$2.3K	$2.9K	+$598.64
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 39.9¢	$2.0K	$1.4K	-$570.07
DumplingBMFCTR	Natus Vincereavg 42.3¢	$4.2K	$4.0K	-$175	68% 1836-852 (2688)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Team Falconsavg 57.8¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$9.24	43% 7731-10455 (18186)
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 57.8¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$367.55
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 43.4¢	$1.4K	$998.69	-$376.79
LU luckycat888888CTR	Natus Vincereavg 40¢	$6.2K	$3.2K	-$240.27	48% 68-74 (142)
LI LinkE5CTR	Natus Vincereavg 41¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$35	47% 711-790 (1501)
DamwonChampions2026ARB<$100	Natus Vincereavg 41.2¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$61	53% 2076-1836 (3912)
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 41.2¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$64.78
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 54.2¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$125.78
YI yishiwucheng	Team Falconsavg 58.9¢	$2.0K	$2.6K	+$623.42	51% 1851-1781 (3632)
TR TrippleEXCTR	Natus Vincereavg 47¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$125	58% 306-220 (526)
minjiARB<$100	Natus Vincereavg 42¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$42.37	52% 1802-1664 (3466)
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 54.7¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$110.3
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 42¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$67.92
HO Hongweiqian	Team Falconsavg 60¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$15	49% 246-261 (507)
SH shawCTR	Natus Vincereavg 42¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$64.5	53% 2186-1966 (4152)
WE weeeskies	Team Falconsavg 57¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$71.25	53% 690-609 (1299)

omnibus-076daa

Team Falcons

Invested

$37,244.15

Value

$32.5K

PnL

$-4.7K

Record

50%

19815-20158 (39973)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Team Falcons

Invested

$21,635.51

Value

$22.3K

PnL

+$639.94

Record

54%

2550-2185 (4735)

Both legs:

Team Falcons$12,301.758.8¢+$2.7K

Natus Vincere$9,333.8136.4¢$-2.0K

NS13

Team Falcons

Invested

$13,871.13

Value

$14.0K

PnL

+$168.54

Record

51%

386-365 (751)

fkALCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$13,099.99

Value

$12.1K

PnL

-$950

Record

63%

2047-1221 (3268)

AnibalAugustoSardinhaCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$8,199.16

Value

$10.5K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

53%

85-75 (160)

0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947aARB<$100

Team Falcons

Invested

$9,770.66

Value

$9.7K

PnL

-$34.66

Record

48%

315-345 (660)

Both legs:

Team Falcons$5,946.4158.6¢-$824.16

Natus Vincere$3,824.2541¢+$789.5

facaigege

Team Falcons

Invested

$8,036.04

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

49%

416-439 (855)

0x42145460F32A84Dd27DF2dbd7afbeE779213dB99-1759056243872

Team Falcons

Invested

$8,880

Value

$8.8K

PnL

-$74

Record

43%

346-461 (807)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Team Falcons

Invested

$6,008.8

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$171.13

Record

52%

14029-12787 (26816)

Both legs:

Team Falcons$3,591.859.4¢+$730.16

Natus Vincere$2,41737.1¢-$559.03

redvinnyCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$8,277.58

Value

$5.6K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

75%

1530-506 (2036)

GooooooollllllllllCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$5,999.99

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$525

Record

50%

1238-1238 (2476)

BabooouCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$5,040

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$180

Record

51%

216-206 (422)

RNGUziCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$5,024.56

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$292.13

Record

50%

227-223 (450)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Team Falcons

Invested

$4,333.83

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$28.57

Record

56%

7461-5982 (13443)

Both legs:

Team Falcons$2,338.7656.9¢+$598.64

Natus Vincere$1,995.0739.9¢-$570.07

DumplingBMFCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$4,224.99

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$175

Record

68%

1836-852 (2688)

NotJumpARB<$100

Team Falcons

Invested

$3,350.92

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$9.24

Record

43%

7731-10455 (18186)

Both legs:

Team Falcons$1,975.4557.8¢+$367.55

Natus Vincere$1,375.4743.4¢-$376.79

luckycat888888CTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$6,209.99

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$240.27

Record

48%

68-74 (142)

LinkE5CTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,870

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$35

Record

47%

711-790 (1501)

DamwonChampions2026ARB<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,668.75

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$61

Record

53%

2076-1836 (3912)

Both legs:

Natus Vincere$1,586.5741.2¢-$64.78

Team Falcons$1,082.1854.2¢+$125.78

yishiwucheng

Team Falcons

Invested

$1,984.73

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$623.42

Record

51%

1851-1781 (3632)

TrippleEXCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,350

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$125

Record

58%

306-220 (526)

minjiARB<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,184.87

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$42.37

Record

52%

1802-1664 (3466)

Both legs:

Team Falcons$1,042.2354.7¢+$110.3

Natus Vincere$1,142.6442¢-$67.92

Hongweiqian

Team Falcons

Invested

$1,800

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$15

Record

49%

246-261 (507)

shawCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$1,806

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$64.5

Record

53%

2186-1966 (4152)

weeeskies

Team Falcons

Invested

$1,624.5

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$71.25

Record

53%

690-609 (1299)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Falcons at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Team Falcons

22 of 41 top traders (54%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Falcons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.