Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Natus Vincere, while the market favors Team Falcons (56%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Natus Vincere (60%) · Natus Vincere at 45¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Natus Vincere
5
Natus Vincere 60%
$14.7K
$47.62
43.9¢ → 44.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNatus Vincere at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Team Falcons 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Mature
23h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Natus Vincere. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR | Natus Vincereavg 44¢ | $6.6K | $6.6K | -$0 | 54% 325-279 (604) |
VI vibing123CTR | Natus Vincereavg 43.7¢ | $4.9K | $5.0K | +$93.93 | 52% 1575-1457 (3032) |
 relativesignificance | Team Falconsavg 57.4¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$49.59 | 56% 115-90 (205) |
BA BabooouCTR | Natus Vincereavg 44¢ | $917.68 | $928.11 | +$10.43 | 52% 214-200 (414) |
 hasobidale | Team Falconsavg 56¢ | $800.8 | $793.65 | -$7.15 | 66% 225-118 (343) |
Invested
$6,599.96
Value
$6.6K
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
325-279 (604)
Invested
$4,904.37
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$93.93
Record
52%
1575-1457 (3032)
relativesignificanceInvested
$1,470.28
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$49.59
Record
56%
115-90 (205)
Invested
$917.68
Value
$928.11
PnL
+$10.43
Record
52%
214-200 (414)
hasobidaleInvested
$800.8
Value
$793.65
PnL
-$7.15
Record
66%
225-118 (343)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.