Consensus PnL $27K · win rate 47% (14–16, n=30) · PM monthly #956 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$26.9K
Record
14W / 16L
Win Rate
47.0%
of 30 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#523
Source
PM monthly #956
Record (90 d)
14/31 · 45%
Trades
76
Markets
33
Volume
$146.8K
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Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 3 on the consensus side (67%)- Orleans: Mattia Bellucci vs Sascha Gueymard-WayenburgSascha Gueymard-Wayenburg $13K · now 52¢ · in at 33¢against the consensus (Mattia Bellucci)
- M25 Columbus, OH: Matthew Forbes vs Gavin YoungMatthew Forbes $10K · now 10¢ · in at 30¢with the consensus (33% of 6)
- WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Mirra AndreevaMirra Andreeva $5.9K · now 48¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (48% of 33)
Specialties
11 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 43¢- Tennis
+57 pts
side won 100% of 11 · avg entry 43¢
ROI +57%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 9%(won 100% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 64%(won 100% of 7)
- 50–70¢: 27%(won 100% of 3)
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.