Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Matthew Forbes, while the market favors Gavin Young (57%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

M25 Columbus, OH: Matthew Forbes vs Gavin Young

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Matthew Forbes (43%) · Matthew Forbes at 43¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 18

Matthew Forbes43¢Gavin Young57¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Matthew Forbes

Consensus Traders

Matthew Forbes 43%

Total Value

$12.4K

Combined PnL

$4.7K

Smart Money Entry

29.3¢ → 42.9¢

+46% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralMatthew Forbes at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Matthew Forbes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Gavin Young 57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Matthew Forbes43%

Gavin Young57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Matthew Forbes3 traders

Total Value$11.4K

Total Shares23,133

Combined PnL+$4.6K

Gavin Young4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,151

Combined PnL+$125.04

Matthew Forbes — 43%Gavin Young — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Matthew Forbes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGavin Young 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Gavin Young 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xe1C08abF3f7D340682A42811250223393DF7eCF1-1781642316918CTR	Matthew Forbesavg 30¢	$6.7K	$11.0K	+$4.3K	43% 13-17 (30)
CI cigarettes	Gavin Youngavg 83¢	$830	$920	+$90	53% 5779-5161 (10940)
38 38791873984189CTR	Matthew Forbesavg 8.7¢	$63.45	$357.85	+$294.4	48% 1419-1557 (2976)
LR lryyy<$100	Gavin Youngavg 72¢	$66.96	$85.56	+$18.6	45% 249-302 (551)
PA Pan9X<$100	Gavin Youngavg 62.9¢	$26.99	$39.49	+$12.5	49% 683-724 (1407)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Gavin Youngavg 66¢	$10	$13.94	+$3.94	50% 53-52 (105)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Matthew Forbesavg 23¢	$1.15	$0.4	-$0.75	29% 173-422 (595)

0xe1C08abF3f7D340682A42811250223393DF7eCF1-1781642316918CTR

Matthew Forbes

Invested

$6,714

Value

$11.0K

PnL

+$4.3K

Record

43%

13-17 (30)

cigarettes

Gavin Young

Invested

$830

Value

$920

PnL

+$90

Record

53%

5779-5161 (10940)

38791873984189CTR

Matthew Forbes

Invested

$63.45

Value

$357.85

PnL

+$294.4

Record

48%

1419-1557 (2976)

lryyy<$100

Gavin Young

Invested

$66.96

Value

$85.56

PnL

+$18.6

Record

45%

249-302 (551)

Pan9X<$100

Gavin Young

Invested

$26.99

Value

$39.49

PnL

+$12.5

Record

49%

683-724 (1407)

glennyorkshire<$100

Gavin Young

Invested

$10

Value

$13.94

PnL

+$3.94

Record

50%

53-52 (105)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Matthew Forbes

Invested

$1.15

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$0.75

Record

29%

173-422 (595)

Research grade

NeutralMatthew Forbes at 43%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Matthew Forbes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Gavin Young 57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Matthew Forbes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGavin Young 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Gavin Young 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Matthew Forbes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.1%

42.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$121.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

221.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.