Orleans: Mattia Bellucci vs Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

13 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Mattia Bellucci (62%) · Mattia Bellucci at 56¢ · $120K held · ends Nov 18

Mattia Bellucci56¢Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg44¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Mattia Bellucci

Consensus Traders

Mattia Bellucci 62%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$120.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

67.7¢ → 55.5¢

-18% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralMattia Bellucci at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mattia Bellucci

13 of 21 top traders (62%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Mattia Bellucci56%

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mattia Bellucci13 traders

Total Value$57.6K

Total Shares88,795

Combined PnL$-3.3K

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg8 traders

Total Value$21.9K

Total Shares61,554

Combined PnL+$2.1K

Mattia Bellucci — 62%Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Mattia Bellucci. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSascha Gueymard-Wayenburg 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Mattia Bellucciavg 65.5¢	$29.9K	$30.9K	+$949.71	53% 1833-1635 (3468)
└ Mattia Bellucci leg	Mattia Bellucciavg 65.5¢	$17.6K	$15.5K	$-2.1K
└ Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg leg	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 33.9¢	$12.3K	$15.4K	+$3.1K
99 999585	Mattia Bellucciavg 67¢	$24.1K	$22.9K	$-1.3K	85% 100-18 (118)
LI LightParadox	Mattia Bellucciavg 69¢	$24.3K	$22.3K	$-1.9K	30% 385-880 (1265)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 31¢	$10.1K	$10.2K	+$162.47	51% 3719-3549 (7268)
0X 0xe1C08abF3f7D340682A42811250223393DF7eCF1-1781642316918CTR	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 33.2¢	$7.7K	$9.7K	+$2.0K	41% 12-17 (29)
FL Flaznorp	Mattia Bellucciavg 67.4¢	$6.1K	$6.0K	-$73.03	51% 1861-1809 (3670)
RN1ARB<$100	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 33¢	$5.8K	$5.7K	-$130.28	57% 4041-3054 (7095)
└ Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg leg	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 33¢	$3.3K	$3.1K	-$149.01
└ Mattia Bellucci leg	Mattia Bellucciavg 68¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$18.73
MA MadridTime	Mattia Bellucciavg 66.7¢	$3.0K	$2.2K	-$22.92	31% 389-859 (1248)
WH whosayCTR	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 34¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$75	70% 19-8 (27)
TH thirdt1meARB<$100	Mattia Bellucciavg 66¢	$3.7K	$1.6K	+$9.81	43% 120-161 (281)
└ Mattia Bellucci leg	Mattia Bellucciavg 66¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$173.63
└ Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg leg	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 32.7¢	$361	$468.76	+$183.44
LI Limousin	Mattia Bellucciavg 69¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$49.93	30% 384-884 (1268)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Mattia Bellucciavg 65.1¢	$2.8K	$1.4K	-$81.3	48% 1401-1536 (2937)
└ Mattia Bellucci leg	Mattia Bellucciavg 65.1¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$181.2
└ Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg leg	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 32.6¢	$311.55	$401.19	+$99.9
EU Eulhunter	Mattia Bellucciavg 64.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$44.91	50% 112-111 (223)
VE Venusian	Mattia Bellucciavg 61.1¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$45.03	31% 394-877 (1271)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Mattia Bellucciavg 66¢	$616.5	$652.5	+$36	40% 548-820 (1368)
└ Mattia Bellucci leg	Mattia Bellucciavg 66¢	$495	$506.25	+$11.25
└ Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg leg	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 27¢	$121.5	$146.25	+$24.75
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 32¢	$342.2	$331.51	-$10.69	—
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Mattia Bellucciavg 67.4¢	$312.32	$313.63	+$1.3	56% 3865-3028 (6893)
└ Mattia Bellucci leg	Mattia Bellucciavg 67.4¢	$205.45	$175.2	-$30.25
└ Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg leg	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 32.8¢	$106.88	$138.43	+$31.55
BA babybellsARB<$100	Mattia Bellucciavg 65.6¢	$325.2	$223.25	-$10.7	24% 133-413 (546)
└ Mattia Bellucci leg	Mattia Bellucciavg 65.6¢	$177.22	$155.25	-$25.9
└ Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg leg	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 33¢	$52.8	$68	+$15.2
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Mattia Bellucciavg 65¢	$162.5	$161.25	-$1.25	28% 163-411 (574)
SE sentrio	Mattia Bellucciavg 64¢	$143.55	$135.7	-$7.85	38% 358-588 (946)
CI cigarettes<$100	Mattia Bellucciavg 61¢	$30.5	$33.75	+$3.25	53% 5758-5142 (10900)
PA pauleta23<$100	Mattia Bellucciavg 68.5¢	$20	$18.54	-$1.46	31% 221-482 (703)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 32¢	$15.68	$15.19	-$0.49	49% 678-717 (1395)
LR lryyy<$100	Mattia Bellucciavg 61¢	$13.42	$14.85	+$1.43	45% 240-290 (530)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Mattia Bellucciavg 68.2¢	$13.63	$11.6	-$2.03	23% 151-497 (648)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$29,937.05

Value

$30.9K

PnL

+$949.71

Record

53%

1833-1635 (3468)

Both legs:

Mattia Bellucci$17,633.9865.5¢$-2.1K

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$12,303.0733.9¢+$3.1K

999585

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$24,119.33

Value

$22.9K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

85%

100-18 (118)

LightParadox

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$24,284.54

Value

$22.3K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

30%

385-880 (1265)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$10,060.37

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$162.47

Record

51%

3719-3549 (7268)

0xe1C08abF3f7D340682A42811250223393DF7eCF1-1781642316918CTR

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$7,658.9

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

41%

12-17 (29)

Flaznorp

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$6,057.14

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$73.03

Record

51%

1861-1809 (3670)

RN1ARB<$100

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$5,825.06

Value

$5.7K

PnL

-$130.28

Record

57%

4041-3054 (7095)

Both legs:

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$3,278.2233¢-$149.01

Mattia Bellucci$2,546.8468¢+$18.73

MadridTime

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$2,973.03

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$22.92

Record

31%

389-859 (1248)

whosayCTR

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$1,700

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$75

Record

70%

19-8 (27)

thirdt1meARB<$100

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$3,696.88

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$9.81

Record

43%

120-161 (281)

Both legs:

Mattia Bellucci$1,279.7466¢-$173.63

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$36132.7¢+$183.44

Limousin

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$1,512.53

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$49.93

Record

30%

384-884 (1268)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$2,776.25

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$81.3

Record

48%

1401-1536 (2937)

Both legs:

Mattia Bellucci$1,147.2865.1¢-$181.2

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$311.5532.6¢+$99.9

Eulhunter

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$1,192.84

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$44.91

Record

50%

112-111 (223)

Venusian

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$1,029.64

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$45.03

Record

31%

394-877 (1271)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$616.5

Value

$652.5

PnL

+$36

Record

40%

548-820 (1368)

Both legs:

Mattia Bellucci$49566¢+$11.25

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$121.527¢+$24.75

mouzsynapseCTR

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$342.2

Value

$331.51

PnL

-$10.69

Record

—

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$312.32

Value

$313.63

PnL

+$1.3

Record

56%

3865-3028 (6893)

Both legs:

Mattia Bellucci$205.4567.4¢-$30.25

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$106.8832.8¢+$31.55

babybellsARB<$100

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$325.2

Value

$223.25

PnL

-$10.7

Record

24%

133-413 (546)

Both legs:

Mattia Bellucci$177.2265.6¢-$25.9

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$52.833¢+$15.2

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$162.5

Value

$161.25

PnL

-$1.25

Record

28%

163-411 (574)

sentrio

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$143.55

Value

$135.7

PnL

-$7.85

Record

38%

358-588 (946)

cigarettes<$100

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$30.5

Value

$33.75

PnL

+$3.25

Record

53%

5758-5142 (10900)

pauleta23<$100

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$20

Value

$18.54

PnL

-$1.46

Record

31%

221-482 (703)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$15.68

Value

$15.19

PnL

-$0.49

Record

49%

678-717 (1395)

lryyy<$100

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$13.42

Value

$14.85

PnL

+$1.43

Record

45%

240-290 (530)

BillBenter2026<$100

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$13.63

Value

$11.6

PnL

-$2.03

Record

23%

151-497 (648)

Research grade

NeutralMattia Bellucci at 56%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Mattia Bellucci

13 of 21 top traders (62%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Mattia Bellucci. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSascha Gueymard-Wayenburg 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mattia Bellucci wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.