Consensus PnL -$383K · win rate 41% (297–421, n=718) · was PM monthly #974 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-382.6K
Record
297W / 421L
Win Rate
41.0%
of 718 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2082
Source
PM monthly #974
Trades
290
Markets
738
Volume
$4.0M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - PARI Universe PlayoffsTeam Yandex $455 · now 16¢ · in at 43¢against the consensus (Team Spirit)
Specialties
398 settled consensus markets · held side won 75% at an average entry of 45¢- Esports
+32 pts
side won 76% of 364 · avg entry 45¢
ROI +41%
- Soccer
+10 pts
side won 60% of 15 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +19%
- MLB
+7 pts
side won 62% of 13 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +13%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 51% of 41)
- 30–50¢: 55%(won 77% of 219)
- 50–70¢: 30%(won 78% of 121)
- 70¢ and up: 4%(won 94% of 17)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.