Consensus PnL -$30K · win rate 46% (343–405, n=748) · was PM monthly #951 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-29.7K
Record
343W / 405L
Win Rate
46.0%
of 748 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2148
Source
PM monthly #951
Record (90 d)
209/210 · 99%
Trades
270
Markets
757
Volume
$1.1M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Set Handicap: Rafael Jodar (-1.5) vs Alejandro Tabilo (+1.5)Rafael Jodar $1.7K · now 35¢ · in at 55¢against the consensus (Alejandro Tabilo)
Specialties
347 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 52¢- Tennis
+48 pts
side won 99% of 213 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +48%
- Soccer
+48 pts
side won 100% of 52 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +48%
- College Football
+46 pts
side won 100% of 21 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +46%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 90% of 10)
- 30–50¢: 35%(won 98% of 123)
- 50–70¢: 59%(won 98% of 206)
- 70¢ and up: 2%(won 100% of 8)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.