Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Alejandro Tabilo, while the market favors Rafael Jodar (55%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Set Handicap: Rafael Jodar (-1.5) vs Alejandro Tabilo (+1.5)

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Alejandro Tabilo (29%) · Alejandro Tabilo at 46¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 9

Rafael Jodar55¢Alejandro Tabilo45¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alejandro Tabilo

Consensus Traders

Alejandro Tabilo 29%

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$12.21

Smart Money Entry

44.9¢ → 45.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlejandro Tabilo at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alejandro Tabilo

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Rafael Jodar 55%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rafael Jodar55%

Alejandro Tabilo46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alejandro Tabilo2 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares6,514

Combined PnL+$36.49

Rafael Jodar5 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares4,932

Combined PnL-$24.28

Alejandro Tabilo — 29%Rafael Jodar — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Alejandro Tabilo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Rafael Jodar) and the top 1000 (4 on Alejandro Tabilo) disagree here.

whaleAlejandro Tabilo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRafael Jodar 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedRafael Jodar 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Alejandro Tabilo 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FA fastball67CTR	Alejandro Tabiloavg 45¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$35.11	49% 123-126 (249)
0X 0xe98c6194374418b1d1b27321f025bd64ac2c8792	Rafael Jodaravg 55¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$15.85	45% 258-317 (575)
VeryLucky888	Rafael Jodaravg 55¢	$1.6K	$810.61	-$7.44	58% 43600-31711 (75311)
OM omnibus-076daa	Rafael Jodaravg 55¢	$109.48	$108.48	-$1	50% 19815-20158 (39973)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Rafael Jodaravg 55¢	$39.05	$39.05	-$0	50% 4008-3992 (8000)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Alejandro Tabiloavg 42¢	$12.6	$19.34	+$1.37	46% 9226-10935 (20161)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Rafael Jodaravg 56¢	$5	$5	+$0	52% 7639-6913 (14552)

fastball67CTR

Alejandro Tabilo

Invested

$2,909.18

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$35.11

Record

49%

123-126 (249)

0xe98c6194374418b1d1b27321f025bd64ac2c8792

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$1,743.3

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$15.85

Record

45%

258-317 (575)

VeryLucky888

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$1,649.99

Value

$810.61

PnL

-$7.44

Record

58%

43600-31711 (75311)

omnibus-076daa

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$109.48

Value

$108.48

PnL

-$1

Record

50%

19815-20158 (39973)

NatoAlfista<$100

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$39.05

Value

$39.05

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

4008-3992 (8000)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Alejandro Tabilo

Invested

$12.6

Value

$19.34

PnL

+$1.37

Record

46%

9226-10935 (20161)

ameisgoat11<$100

Rafael Jodar

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

7639-6913 (14552)

Research grade

NeutralAlejandro Tabilo at 46%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Alejandro Tabilo

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Rafael Jodar 55%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Alejandro Tabilo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Rafael Jodar) and the top 1000 (4 on Alejandro Tabilo) disagree here.

whaleAlejandro Tabilo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRafael Jodar 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedRafael Jodar 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Alejandro Tabilo 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alejandro Tabilo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.