Consensus PnL $200K · win rate 51% (83–81, n=164) · PM monthly #627 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$200.4K
Record
83W / 81L
Win Rate
51.0%
of 164 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1712
Source
PM monthly #627
Trades
301
Markets
256
Volume
$614.5K
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Will Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?Yes $988 · now 28¢ · in at 29¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
216 settled consensus markets · held side won 51% at an average entry of 41¢- Soccer
+11 pts
side won 52% of 112 · avg entry 41¢
ROI +30%
- Esports
+7 pts
side won 48% of 94 · avg entry 41¢
ROI +28%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 31%(won 32% of 68)
- 30–50¢: 34%(won 53% of 74)
- 50–70¢: 31%(won 65% of 66)
- 70¢ and up: 4%(won 75% of 8)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.