Will Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 72¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$9.8K
$56.81
71¢ → 71.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA Cannae | Noavg 71¢ | $7.7K | $7.7K | +$54.19 | 53% 16115-14278 (30393) |
0X 0xedrtgfBdecfrhyeerdCTR | Yesavg 29¢ | $988 | $988 | -$0 | 34% 77-149 (226) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 71¢ | $609.82 | $609.82 | +$4.29 | 72% 6827-2621 (9448) |
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f | Noavg 72¢ | $246.34 | $244.66 | -$1.71 | 69% 156-69 (225) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1 | Noavg 71¢ | $109.69 | $109.7 | +$0 | 53% 2247-1977 (4224) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $45.29 | $45.29 | +$0.32 | 56% 14224-11030 (25254) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $41.14 | $40.57 | -$0.29 | 58% 42674-31054 (73728) |
Invested
$7,695.22
Value
$7.7K
PnL
+$54.19
Record
53%
16115-14278 (30393)
Invested
$988
Value
$988
PnL
-$0
Record
34%
77-149 (226)
Invested
$609.82
Value
$609.82
PnL
+$4.29
Record
72%
6827-2621 (9448)
Invested
$246.34
Value
$244.66
PnL
-$1.71
Record
69%
156-69 (225)
Invested
$109.69
Value
$109.7
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
2247-1977 (4224)
Invested
$45.29
Value
$45.29
PnL
+$0.32
Record
56%
14224-11030 (25254)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$41.14
Value
$40.57
PnL
-$0.29
Record
58%
42674-31054 (73728)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.