Consensus PnL -$2.3K · win rate 42% (649–881, n=1530) · was PM monthly #897 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-2.3K
Record
649W / 881L
Win Rate
42.0%
of 1530 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2059
Source
PM monthly #897
Trades
372
Markets
1,552
Volume
$2.3M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 2 on the consensus side (0%)- Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo SonegoLorenzo Sonego $4.8K · now 61¢ · in at 56¢against the consensus (Adolfo Vallejo)
- Swiss Indoors Basel: Jiri Lehecka vs Valentin VacherotValentin Vacherot $556 · now 14¢ · in at 38¢against the consensus (Jiri Lehecka)
Specialties
673 settled consensus markets · held side won 94% at an average entry of 45¢- Tennis
+50 pts
side won 94% of 620 · avg entry 45¢
ROI +48%
- Soccer
+45 pts
side won 93% of 40 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +43%
- Other Sports
+50 pts
side won 100% of 11 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +46%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 11%(won 85% of 74)
- 30–50¢: 53%(won 94% of 359)
- 50–70¢: 36%(won 97% of 239)
- 70¢ and up: 0%(won 100% of 1)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.