Consensus PnL -$4.6K · win rate 51% (353–334, n=687) · was PM monthly #645 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-4.6K
Record
353W / 334L
Win Rate
51.0%
of 687 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1694
Source
PM monthly #645
Trades
70
Markets
710
Volume
$936.2K
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 4 on the consensus side (75%)- Counter-Strike: WBT Academy vs Iberian Soul (BO3) - Circuito Retake PlayoffsIberian Soul $5.1K · now 0¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (36% of 11)
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 3 WinnerTeam Yandex $2.6K · now 44¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (66% of 70)
- Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group ATheMongolz $1.6K · now 48¢ · in at 48¢against the consensus (Legacy)
- Counter-Strike: 9z vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group BBetBoom Team $157 · now 64¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
Specialties
388 settled consensus markets · held side won 88% at an average entry of 53¢- Esports
+34 pts
side won 88% of 377 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +33%
- Tennis
+32 pts
side won 82% of 11 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +30%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 59% of 17)
- 30–50¢: 29%(won 85% of 112)
- 50–70¢: 59%(won 90% of 228)
- 70¢ and up: 8%(won 97% of 31)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.