Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Legacy (55%) · Legacy at 53¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 2

Legacy53¢TheMongolz47¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Legacy

Consensus Traders

Legacy 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.6K

Combined PnL

$168.72

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 52.5¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralLegacy at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Legacy

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Legacy53%

TheMongolz48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Legacy6 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares15,059

Combined PnL+$237.43

TheMongolz5 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares15,051

Combined PnL-$68.7

Legacy — 55%TheMongolz — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

121h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Legacy. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLegacy 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpLegacy 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperLegacy 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLegacy 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Legacy 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Reformedx	Legacyavg 50¢	$4.0K	$4.3K	+$203.22	52% 839-788 (1627)
SatanishippieCTR	TheMongolzavg 48¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	-$29.17	48% 322-346 (668)
forsenxd	Legacyavg 52¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$23.74	53% 1074-939 (2013)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR	TheMongolzavg 47.5¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$1.37	51% 350-340 (690)
AS astapzippoARB<$100	Legacyavg 52¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$72.68	56% 2161-1708 (3869)
└ Legacy leg	Legacyavg 52¢	$980.21	$999.06	+$9.43
└ TheMongolz leg	TheMongolzavg 42¢	$483	$540.5	+$63.25
PA Partyarty91CTR	TheMongolzavg 51.7¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$122.42	55% 116-94 (210)
JO jole24CTR	TheMongolzavg 47¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$11.52	44% 1031-1292 (2323)
HL HLEbritni	Legacyavg 52¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$10	— 11-4 (15)
TR TrippleEXCTR	TheMongolzavg 36¢	$227.69	$297.26	+$72.73	58% 300-216 (516)
relativesignificance<$100	Legacyavg 52¢	$52.98	$54	+$0.51	56% 115-90 (205)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Legacyavg 53¢	$52.76	$52.26	-$0.5	50% 19450-19817 (39267)
GH ghorrock<$100	Legacyavg 51.8¢	$37.07	$34.94	+$0.46	56% 14240-11046 (25286)

Reformedx

Legacy

Invested

$4,019.72

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$203.22

Record

52%

839-788 (1627)

SatanishippieCTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$2,800

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$29.17

Record

48%

322-346 (668)

forsenxd

Legacy

Invested

$2,468.48

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$23.74

Record

53%

1074-939 (2013)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$1,606.92

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$1.37

Record

51%

350-340 (690)

astapzippoARB<$100

Legacy

Invested

$1,463.21

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$72.68

Record

56%

2161-1708 (3869)

Both legs:

Legacy$980.2152¢+$9.43

TheMongolz$48342¢+$63.25

Partyarty91CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$122.42

Record

55%

116-94 (210)

jole24CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$1,083.31

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$11.52

Record

44%

1031-1292 (2323)

HLEbritni

Legacy

Invested

$1,039.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10

Record

—

11-4 (15)

TrippleEXCTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$227.69

Value

$297.26

PnL

+$72.73

Record

58%

300-216 (516)

relativesignificance<$100

Legacy

Invested

$52.98

Value

$54

PnL

+$0.51

Record

56%

115-90 (205)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Legacy

Invested

$52.76

Value

$52.26

PnL

-$0.5

Record

50%

19450-19817 (39267)

ghorrock<$100

Legacy

Invested

$37.07

Value

$34.94

PnL

+$0.46

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

Research grade

NeutralLegacy at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Legacy

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

121h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Legacy. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLegacy 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpLegacy 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperLegacy 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLegacy 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Legacy 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Legacy wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.