Consensus PnL $192K · win rate 65% (13–7, n=20) · was PM monthly #996 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$192.4K
Record
13W / 7L
Win Rate
65.0%
of 20 settled
Batting Avg
85.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#958
Source
PM monthly #996 + pinned
Trades
1,434
Markets
44
Volume
$849.8K
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes $139K · now 55¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (46% of 27)
Specialties
34 settled consensus markets · held side won 74% at an average entry of 62¢- Finance
+34 pts
side won 100% of 12 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +30%
- Crypto
+3 pts
side won 60% of 15 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +21%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 15%(won 0% of 5)
- 30–50¢: 15%(won 40% of 5)
- 50–70¢: 26%(won 89% of 9)
- 70¢ and up: 44%(won 100% of 15)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.