Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

11 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (42%) · Yes at 54¢ · $214K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes54¢No46¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 42%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$214.3K

Combined PnL

$-26.1K

Smart Money Entry

66.8¢ → 54¢

-19% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 26 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes54%

No46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$156.5K

Total Shares289,902

Combined PnL$-38.7K

No15 traders

Total Value$57.5K

Total Shares124,051

Combined PnL+$12.6K

Yes — 42%No — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

19 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 10

Diverging

sharpYes 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 54% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 56% · 16

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xfree-money	Yesavg 67.3¢	$173.3K	$137.9K	$-35.0K	68% 25-12 (37)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	Noavg 41.5¢	$15.2K	$16.9K	+$1.6K	53% 915-808 (1723)
JJoCTR	Noavg 38.8¢	$9.7K	$11.6K	+$1.9K	66% 944-496 (1440)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Noavg 30.1¢	$5.4K	$8.1K	+$2.9K	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
HA HauchnCTR	Noavg 27.9¢	$3.2K	$7.1K	+$3.8K	37% 64-107 (171)
TR troimCTR	Noavg 44.6¢	$4.9K	$5.1K	+$150.13	36% 397-691 (1088)
TBill1	Yesavg 57.1¢	$5.3K	$5.0K	-$321.16	45% 154-188 (342)
Nadmi	Yesavg 53.5¢	$4.1K	$4.0K	-$39.21	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
HE HerrieDavis	Yesavg 66.3¢	$4.5K	$3.7K	-$818.63	36% 2086-3721 (5807)
TO TokorCTR	Noavg 25.1¢	$2.0K	$3.7K	+$1.7K	62% 795-490 (1285)
occasionalAwarenessCTR	Noavg 48.2¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$154.3	52% 284-262 (546)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Yesavg 68.5¢	$2.3K	$1.8K	-$481.63	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
AP apmt	Yesavg 77.2¢	$2.3K	$1.6K	-$700.2	74% 64-22 (86)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 70.1¢	$1.8K	$1.2K	-$631.93	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
DEGENKHAN	Yesavg 80.7¢	$1.6K	$1.0K	-$567.78	66% 1107-565 (1672)
88 881112CTR	Noavg 18.7¢	$239.89	$593.54	+$353.65	38% 567-944 (1511)
GenaTheBondKilIerCTR	Noavg 30.1¢	$232.55	$359.42	+$126.87	51% 527-509 (1036)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fARB<$100	Yesavg 52.5¢	$227.51	$326.14	-$1.39	69% 156-69 (225)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 52.5¢	$227.51	$234.14	+$6.61
└ No leg	Noavg 50¢	$100	$92	-$8
SB sbimbgCTR	Noavg 23¢	$144.38	$291.91	+$144.38	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
0xheavy888	Yesavg 70¢	$350	$270	-$80	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
CO cocococococoCTR	Noavg 46¢	$255.3	$258.08	+$0	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
LO LongAndWindingRoad	Yesavg 65¢	$200	$166.15	-$33.85	61% 70-44 (114)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Noavg 22.6¢	$30.16	$93.48	+$63.33	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
TT tttt123CTR<$100	Noavg 49.5¢	$99.64	$93	-$6.64	72% 1535-585 (2120)
LE LetTheGoodTimesRoll<$100	Yesavg 53.9¢	$1.6	$1.82	+$0.22	45% 3592-4351 (7943)

0xfree-money

Yes

Invested

$173,343.58

Value

$137.9K

PnL

$-35.0K

Record

68%

25-12 (37)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Invested

$15,239.17

Value

$16.9K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

53%

915-808 (1723)

JJoCTR

Invested

$9,684.35

Value

$11.6K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

66%

944-496 (1440)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Invested

$5,355.16

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

HauchnCTR

Invested

$3,240.4

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

37%

64-107 (171)

troimCTR

Invested

$4,909.96

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$150.13

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

TBill1

Yes

Invested

$5,320.03

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$321.16

Record

45%

154-188 (342)

Nadmi

Yes

Invested

$4,059.96

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$39.21

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

HerrieDavis

Yes

Invested

$4,512.41

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$818.63

Record

36%

2086-3721 (5807)

TokorCTR

Invested

$2,012.49

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

62%

795-490 (1285)

occasionalAwarenessCTR

Invested

$3,408.42

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$154.3

Record

52%

284-262 (546)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Yes

Invested

$2,314.6

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$481.63

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

apmt

Yes

Invested

$2,283.8

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$700.2

Record

74%

64-22 (86)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$1,784.46

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$631.93

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

DEGENKHAN

Yes

Invested

$1,608.33

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$567.78

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

881112CTR

Invested

$239.89

Value

$593.54

PnL

+$353.65

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

GenaTheBondKilIerCTR

Invested

$232.55

Value

$359.42

PnL

+$126.87

Record

51%

527-509 (1036)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$227.51

Value

$326.14

PnL

-$1.39

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

Both legs:

Yes$227.5152.5¢+$6.61

No$10050¢-$8

sbimbgCTR

Invested

$144.38

Value

$291.91

PnL

+$144.38

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

0xheavy888

Yes

Invested

$350

Value

$270

PnL

-$80

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

cocococococoCTR

Invested

$255.3

Value

$258.08

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

LongAndWindingRoad

Yes

Invested

$200

Value

$166.15

PnL

-$33.85

Record

61%

70-44 (114)

HourglassCTR<$100

Invested

$30.16

Value

$93.48

PnL

+$63.33

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

tttt123CTR<$100

Invested

$99.64

Value

$93

PnL

-$6.64

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

LetTheGoodTimesRoll<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.82

PnL

+$0.22

Record

45%

3592-4351 (7943)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 54%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 26 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

19 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 10

Diverging

sharpYes 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 54% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 56% · 16

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.0%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$78.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

178.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.