Consensus PnL $117K · win rate 66% (217–114, n=331) · was PM monthly #612 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$117.4K
Record
217W / 114L
Win Rate
66.0%
of 331 settled
Batting Avg
44.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#894
Source
PM monthly #612
Trades
1,819
Markets
974
Volume
$15.9M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $16K · now 71¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (80% of 89)
- LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO5) - Worlds PlayoffsGen.G $5.8K · now 92¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
Specialties
315 settled consensus markets · held side won 63% at an average entry of 62¢- Tech
+5 pts
side won 73% of 15 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +5%
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 75% of 12 at an average 77¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 23%(won 16% of 73)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 40% of 35)
- 50–70¢: 17%(won 50% of 54)
- 70¢ and up: 49%(won 95% of 153)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.