Tech: what top Polymarket traders hold
AI, products, launches and the tech companies. These are the Tech markets on Polymarket in which at least five of the top traders we track hold a position, with the side most of them hold (the consensus), what share of them hold it and the market's own price for that side.
A consensus is a head count of who holds what, not a probability, and following it did not pay on average in our backtests — see how it works.
- Live consensus markets
- 51
- Recently settled, consensus right
- 29 of 61
- Prices as of
- Nov 1, 14:40 UTC
Live Tech consensus markets (51)
- Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Traders hold No 52%11 of 22 tradersMarket price 73¢$24K held
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Traders hold Yes 80%16 of 20 tradersMarket price 53¢$86K held
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Traders hold No 38%6 of 16 tradersMarket price 86¢$67K held
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Traders hold No 53%8 of 15 tradersMarket price 95¢$25K held
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Traders hold Yes 87%13 of 15 tradersMarket price 62¢$19K held
- Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Traders hold Yes 57%8 of 14 tradersMarket price 76¢$24K held
- Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Traders hold Yes 50%6 of 13 tradersMarket price 64¢$13K held
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Traders hold No 50%6 of 12 tradersMarket price 64¢$22K held
- Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?Traders hold No 42%5 of 12 tradersMarket price 76¢$6K held
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Traders hold Yes 55%6 of 11 tradersMarket price 55¢$15K held
- AI bubble burst in 2026?Traders hold No 78%7 of 9 tradersMarket price 90¢$11K held
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Traders hold No 56%5 of 9 tradersMarket price 88¢$2K held
- Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?Traders hold Yes 56%5 of 9 tradersMarket price 98¢$2K held
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Traders hold No 22%2 of 9 tradersMarket price 89¢$1K held
- Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?Traders hold Yes 50%4 of 8 tradersMarket price 78¢$3K held
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?Traders hold No 57%4 of 8 tradersMarket price 83¢$3K held
- Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?Traders hold Yes 50%3 of 8 tradersMarket price 38¢$2K heldagainst the market price
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?Traders hold Yes 25%2 of 8 tradersMarket price 13¢$1K heldagainst the market price
- Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Traders hold No 38%3 of 8 tradersMarket price 98¢$1K held
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?Traders hold No 75%6 of 8 tradersMarket price 87¢$840 held
- Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?Traders hold Yes 86%6 of 7 tradersMarket price 99¢$21K held
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?Traders hold No 71%5 of 7 tradersMarket price 87¢$16K held
- Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Traders hold No 86%6 of 7 tradersMarket price 83¢$5K held
- Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Traders hold No 86%6 of 7 tradersMarket price 57¢$4K held
- Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Traders hold Yes 67%4 of 7 tradersMarket price 21¢$3K heldagainst the market price
- Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?Traders hold No 71%5 of 7 tradersMarket price 77¢$3K held
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Traders hold No 50%3 of 7 tradersMarket price 67¢$3K held
- Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?Traders hold No 71%5 of 7 tradersMarket price 80¢$2K held
- Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?Traders hold No 86%6 of 7 tradersMarket price 88¢$2K held
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Traders hold Yes 43%3 of 7 tradersMarket price 5.7¢$2K heldagainst the market price
- Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?Traders hold Yes 43%3 of 7 tradersMarket price 79¢$1K held
- Will the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Traders hold Yes 100%6 of 7 tradersMarket price 21¢$1K heldagainst the market price
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Traders hold Yes 29%2 of 7 tradersMarket price 14¢$791 heldagainst the market price
- Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Traders hold No 29%2 of 7 tradersMarket price 97¢$484 held
- Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? Traders hold No 83%5 of 6 tradersMarket price 94¢$8K held
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by December 31, 2026?Traders hold No 33%2 of 6 tradersMarket price 43¢$3K heldagainst the market price
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?Traders hold No 50%3 of 6 tradersMarket price 89¢$1K held
- Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Meta by December 31?Traders hold No 80%4 of 5 tradersMarket price 98¢$5K held
- Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?Traders hold No 60%3 of 5 tradersMarket price 85¢$4K held
- AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027?Traders hold No 100%5 of 5 tradersMarket price 78¢$3K held
- Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for China by December 31?Traders hold No 60%3 of 5 tradersMarket price 96¢$3K held
- Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Traders hold No 100%5 of 5 tradersMarket price 92¢$3K held
- Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026?Traders hold Yes 60%3 of 5 tradersMarket price 56¢$3K held
- Anthropic lab leak by June 30, 2027?Traders hold No 100%5 of 5 tradersMarket price 93¢$3K held
- Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for SpaceXAI / Elon Musk by December 31?Traders hold No 80%4 of 5 tradersMarket price 97¢$2K held
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Traders hold No 80%4 of 5 tradersMarket price 85¢$2K held
- Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by November 30, 2026?Traders hold Yes 60%3 of 5 tradersMarket price 46¢$2K heldagainst the market price
- Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Traders hold Yes 100%4 of 5 tradersMarket price 16¢$1K heldagainst the market price
- Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?Traders hold Yes 80%4 of 5 tradersMarket price 17¢$447 heldagainst the market price
- Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by November 30, 2026?Traders hold Yes 40%2 of 5 tradersMarket price 43¢$423 heldagainst the market price
- Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Traders hold No 40%2 of 5 tradersMarket price 99¢$298 held
Top traders in Tech
Tracked traders with 10 or more settled Tech consensus markets whose side won more often than its entry price implied, ranked by how much (on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short lucky run does not rank first). These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero.
- 1.8dcc906a9b+49 ptsside won 90% of 20 · avg entry 42¢ · ROI +55%
- 2.HerrieDavis+31 ptsside won 87% of 181 · avg entry 55¢ · ROI −2%
- 3.JAMJAMJAM4+31 ptsside won 100% of 41 · avg entry 69¢ · ROI +36%
- 4.eightpenguins+36 ptsside won 79% of 43 · avg entry 43¢ · ROI +25%
- 5.troim+31 ptsside won 70% of 63 · avg entry 38¢ · ROI +18%
- 6.0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271+27 ptsside won 98% of 55 · avg entry 71¢ · ROI +8%
- 7.BrownBees+28 ptsside won 80% of 56 · avg entry 52¢ · ROI +27%
- 8.dedidanc+21 ptsside won 100% of 57 · avg entry 79¢ · ROI +20%
- 9.cry.eth2+17 ptsside won 24% of 825 · avg entry 7¢ · ROI +11%
- 10.George.Smiley+20 ptsside won 93% of 82 · avg entry 73¢ · ROI +18%
Recently settled Tech markets
What the tracked traders held when each market settled, and how it came out. A handful of markets says little about the next one.
- Will Company Q be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Result: NoTraders held Yes 100%consensus was wrong
- Will Company K be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Result: NoTraders held Yes 100%consensus was wrong
- Will Company U be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Result: NoTraders held Yes 100%consensus was wrong
- Will Company I be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Result: NoTraders held Yes 100%consensus was wrong
- Will Company O be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Result: NoTraders held Yes 100%consensus was wrong
- Will Company N be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Result: NoTraders held Yes 100%consensus was wrong
- Will Company R be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Result: NoTraders held Yes 100%consensus was wrong
- Will Company S be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Result: NoTraders held Yes 100%consensus was wrong
- Will Company Y be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Result: NoTraders held Yes 100%consensus was wrong
- Will Company H be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Result: NoTraders held Yes 100%consensus was wrong
- Will a company not listed here be the first to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Result: NoTraders held Yes 100%consensus was wrong
- Will Company X be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Result: NoTraders held Yes 100%consensus was wrong
Holders update as the tracked traders trade, and prices refresh about once a minute. Only wallets with a position of at least 1 share count as holders; the side is the one with the most money behind it among holders with $100 or more in the market. PolyConsensus is not affiliated with Polymarket and this is not investment advice. More: all topics, the trader leaderboard, large trades.