LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Gen.G (80%) · Gen.G at 93¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 5
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Research candidate
Gen.G
5
Gen.G 80%
$25.4K
$143.87
92¢ → 92.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
Research candidateGen.G at 93%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Gen.G. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO ColdBlooded | Gen.Gavg 92¢ | $21.8K | $20.2K | +$109 | 72% 144-57 (201) |
25 254321758 | Gen.Gavg 92¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | +$17.9 | 69% 451-205 (656) |
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69 | Gen.Gavg 92¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$9.68 | 67% 41-20 (61) |
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE<$100 | Gen.Gavg 91¢ | $86.49 | $87.44 | +$1.43 | 54% 1249-1044 (2293) |
MP mpyhCTR<$100 | LYONavg 6¢ | $23.5 | $29.37 | +$5.87 | 69% 1158-524 (1682) |
Invested
$21,799.96
Value
$20.2K
PnL
+$109
Record
72%
144-57 (201)
Invested
$3,292.94
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$17.9
Record
69%
451-205 (656)
Invested
$1,780.2
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$9.68
Record
67%
41-20 (61)
Invested
$86.49
Value
$87.44
PnL
+$1.43
Record
54%
1249-1044 (2293)
Invested
$23.5
Value
$29.37
PnL
+$5.87
Record
69%
1158-524 (1682)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.