Consensus PnL -$7.0K · win rate 50% (83–84, n=167) · was PM monthly #567 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-7.0K
Record
83W / 84L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 167 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1772
Source
PM monthly #567
Trades
18
Markets
171
Volume
$691.1K
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Raptors vs. LakersLakers $18K · now 57¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (56% of 18)
Specialties
94 settled consensus markets · held side won 84% at an average entry of 52¢- Esports
+33 pts
side won 88% of 43 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +33%
- MLB
+33 pts
side won 77% of 26 · avg entry 44¢
ROI +35%
- Soccer
+21 pts
side won 78% of 18 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +29%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 9%(won 88% of 8)
- 30–50¢: 48%(won 78% of 45)
- 50–70¢: 23%(won 91% of 22)
- 70¢ and up: 20%(won 89% of 19)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.