Raptors vs. Lakers

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (60%) · Lakers at 57¢ · $42K held · ends Nov 2

Raptors43¢Lakers57¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Lakers

Consensus Traders

Lakers 60%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$42.3K

Combined PnL

-$99.16

Smart Money Entry

59.7¢ → 57.5¢

-4% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

9 of 15 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Raptors43%

Lakers57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lakers9 traders

Total Value$31.8K

Total Shares54,667

Combined PnL-$857.3

Raptors6 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares23,209

Combined PnL+$758.14

Lakers — 60%Raptors — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRaptors 50% · 4

Diverging

sharpLakers 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrLakers 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedLakers 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Lakers 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
32 32555	Lakersavg 57.5¢	$17.7K	$17.6K	-$6.64	51% 85-82 (167)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Lakersavg 61¢	$8.4K	$8.1K	-$344.58	53% 2247-1977 (4224)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Raptorsavg 38.7¢	$5.4K	$5.9K	+$531.97	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
0X 0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941	Lakersavg 64.9¢	$6.1K	$5.7K	-$226.26	59% 256-177 (433)
MA MAGATheeStallionCTR	Raptorsavg 39¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$128.2	57% 261-193 (454)
TA takeormakeCTR	Raptorsavg 38¢	$999.78	$1.1K	+$92.09	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Raptorsavg 38¢	$500.08	$513.24	+$6.58	73% 3600-1329 (4929)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Lakersavg 57.5¢	$376.24	$377.38	+$1.14	54% 3403-2950 (6353)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 57.5¢	$277.35	$277.31	-$0.04
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 42¢	$98.89	$100.07	+$1.18
BT btmx6	Lakersavg 62¢	$270.31	$261.59	-$2.18	42% 18-25 (43)
RO rocky42019ARB<$100	Raptorsavg 33¢	$180.5	$195.87	+$19.21	42% 1725-2358 (4083)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 33¢	$99	$117	+$22.5
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 62¢	$81.5	$78.87	-$3.29
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Lakersavg 62.5¢	$159.09	$139.82	-$4.53	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 62.5¢	$77.2	$71.06	-$6.13
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 40.5¢	$65.48	$68.76	+$1.6
BO BoomLaLa	Lakersavg 57.5¢	$115	$113	-$2	53% 11582-10087 (21669)
funnydayCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 43¢	$86	$85	-$1	50% 3913-3899 (7812)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Lakersavg 62.4¢	$41.67	$39.25	-$2.42	57% 29226-21613 (50839)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Raptorsavg 37¢	$22.57	$23.79	+$0.31	50% 7122-7165 (14287)
0xheavy888<$100	Lakersavg 61.3¢	$18.4	$17.25	-$0.85	55% 7314-5881 (13195)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Lakersavg 62¢	$6.2	$5.75	-$0.35	52% 7499-6786 (14285)
VeryLucky888	Lakersavg 61.5¢	$5.2K	$5.13	-$272.02	58% 42674-31054 (73728)

32555

Lakers

Invested

$17,652.03

Value

$17.6K

PnL

-$6.64

Record

51%

85-82 (167)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Lakers

Invested

$8,407.74

Value

$8.1K

PnL

-$344.58

Record

53%

2247-1977 (4224)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Raptors

Invested

$5,380.22

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$531.97

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941

Lakers

Invested

$6,140.41

Value

$5.7K

PnL

-$226.26

Record

59%

256-177 (433)

MAGATheeStallionCTR

Raptors

Invested

$1,999.92

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$128.2

Record

57%

261-193 (454)

takeormakeCTR

Raptors

Invested

$999.78

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$92.09

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Raptors

Invested

$500.08

Value

$513.24

PnL

+$6.58

Record

73%

3600-1329 (4929)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$376.24

Value

$377.38

PnL

+$1.14

Record

54%

3403-2950 (6353)

Both legs:

Lakers$277.3557.5¢-$0.04

Raptors$98.8942¢+$1.18

btmx6

Lakers

Invested

$270.31

Value

$261.59

PnL

-$2.18

Record

42%

18-25 (43)

rocky42019ARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$180.5

Value

$195.87

PnL

+$19.21

Record

42%

1725-2358 (4083)

Both legs:

Invested

$159.09

Value

$139.82

PnL

-$4.53

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

Both legs:

Lakers$77.262.5¢-$6.13

Raptors$65.4840.5¢+$1.6

BoomLaLa

Lakers

Invested

$115

Value

$113

PnL

-$2

Record

53%

11582-10087 (21669)

funnydayCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$86

Value

$85

PnL

-$1

Record

50%

3913-3899 (7812)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Lakers

Invested

$41.67

Value

$39.25

PnL

-$2.42

Record

57%

29226-21613 (50839)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$22.57

Value

$23.79

PnL

+$0.31

Record

50%

7122-7165 (14287)

0xheavy888<$100

Lakers

Invested

$18.4

Value

$17.25

PnL

-$0.85

Record

55%

7314-5881 (13195)

ameisgoat11<$100

Lakers

Invested

$6.2

Value

$5.75

PnL

-$0.35

Record

52%

7499-6786 (14285)

VeryLucky888

Lakers

Invested

$5,204.71

Value

$5.13

PnL

-$272.02

Record

58%

42674-31054 (73728)

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

9 of 15 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRaptors 50% · 4

Diverging

sharpLakers 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrLakers 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedLakers 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Lakers 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.