Consensus PnL $124K · win rate 43% (839–1128, n=1967) · was PM monthly #629 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$124.0K
Record
839W / 1128L
Win Rate
43.0%
of 1967 settled
Batting Avg
36.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2278
Source
PM monthly #629
Record (90 d)
410/476 · 86%
Trades
1,238
Markets
2,056
Volume
$3.1M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Katie Volynets vs Aliaksandra SasnovichAliaksandra Sasnovich $420 · now 94¢ · in at 40¢with the consensus (84% of 41)
Specialties
1,450 settled consensus markets · held side won 55% at an average entry of 42¢- Tennis
+38 pts
side won 86% of 353 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +37%
- Soccer
+11 pts
side won 49% of 533 · avg entry 38¢
ROI +9%
- Economy
+7 pts
side won 27% of 11 · avg entry 20¢
ROI +5%
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 8% of 12 at an average 23¢ entry (−14 pts against the price), ROI −7%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 26%(won 18% of 381)
- 30–50¢: 36%(won 58% of 526)
- 50–70¢: 30%(won 77% of 440)
- 70¢ and up: 7%(won 88% of 103)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.