Consensus PnL $4.3K · win rate 58% (7–5, n=12) · PM monthly #395 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$4.3K
Record
7W / 5L
Win Rate
58.0%
of 12 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1353
Source
PM monthly #395
Record (90 d)
6/11 · 55%
Trades
32
Markets
17
Volume
$121.1K
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 6 on the consensus side (83%)- Suns vs. WarriorsWarriors $9.2K · now 62¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (46% of 14)
- Raptors vs. ClippersRaptors $6.6K · now 67¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (56% of 9)
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 230.5Over $5.2K · now 51¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (44% of 9)
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Thunder $3.2K · now 53¢ · in at 52¢against the consensus (Cavaliers)
- Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5)Pelicans $2.1K · now 52¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (25% of 5)
- Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $182 · now 4¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (100% of 13)
Specialties
11 settled consensus markets · held side won 55% at an average entry of 45¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where AppleTiiime's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 9%(won 100% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 55%(won 50% of 6)
- 50–70¢: 36%(won 50% of 4)
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.