Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 3.5¢ · $14K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$14.4K

Combined PnL

$483.39

Smart Money Entry

3.4¢ → 3.5¢

+4% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$14.4K

Total Shares406,766

Combined PnL+$483.39

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

729h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

26 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
saintaphextwinCTR	Yesavg 3.4¢	$10.8K	$11.4K	+$571.62	39% 397-627 (1024)
RA RaisuuCTR	Yesavg 4¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$187.11	— 7-3 (10)
solwizzo-onXCTR	Yesavg 3.1¢	$784	$863.02	+$79.02	67% 347-174 (521)
NooseracCTR	Yesavg 3.3¢	$223.32	$233.47	+$10.15	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 3.5¢	$165.16	$162.15	-$3.01	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$29.82	$38.11	+$8.29	56% 14257-11059 (25316)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$23.95	$26.78	+$2.83	76% 11358-3527 (14885)
0X 0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$18.03	$22.93	+$4.9	11% 20-166 (186)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$24	$20.7	-$3.3	57% 3069-2357 (5426)

saintaphextwinCTR

Yes

Invested

$10,823.84

Value

$11.4K

PnL

+$571.62

Record

39%

397-627 (1024)

RaisuuCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,826.16

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$187.11

Record

—

7-3 (10)

solwizzo-onXCTR

Yes

Invested

$784

Value

$863.02

PnL

+$79.02

Record

67%

347-174 (521)

NooseracCTR

Yes

Invested

$223.32

Value

$233.47

PnL

+$10.15

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$165.16

Value

$162.15

PnL

-$3.01

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.82

Value

$38.11

PnL

+$8.29

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.95

Value

$26.78

PnL

+$2.83

Record

76%

11358-3527 (14885)

0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.03

Value

$22.93

PnL

+$4.9

Record

11%

20-166 (186)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24

Value

$20.7

PnL

-$3.3

Record

57%

3069-2357 (5426)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

729h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

26 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.8%

3.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1997.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

2097.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.